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Thread: EXPLAIN URSELF CULLIONZ!!!

  1. #31
    If I die before I wake.. Cullion's Avatar
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    0.6*1.5 comes from a single win and a single loss. When win and loss are equally likely I expect the long term wealth to converge on 0.9^(rounds/2)

    you don't understand why 0.6*1.5=0.9?
    Last edited by Cullion; 19th December 19 at 02:16 PM.
    ONE SOUL AT A TIME

    Quote Originally Posted by Danno
    i got nothing, you win again.
    Quote Originally Posted by resolve
    I trust God more than I trust you. And that will never change. I've always viewed you as kind of a snake. No biblical connotations need apply, just the regular ones. You're wise. You're really intelligent. But you're also conniving and have this way of getting what you want when you want it. The sickness I was talking about was your propensity to kind of reach in and grasp on to something to define someone here. You harangue them about it and manipulate it in to conversations. You do that with every single poster here. You do this until they see things your way. The "correct way". It's vile.

  2. #32


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    Oh dear...
    Quote Originally Posted by Cullion View Post
    Trump can't actually win an election.. can he ?
    Quote Originally Posted by MerkinMuffly View Post
    Short answer is no.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cullion View Post
    I think you're right here.

  3. #33
    If I die before I wake.. Cullion's Avatar
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    What are you struggling with ?

    You agree that over many rounds you expect an equal number of wins and losses, yes?

    Their method of calculating expectation doesn't model reality. Mine does. Have you worked out why yet ?
    Last edited by Cullion; 20th December 19 at 07:16 AM.
    ONE SOUL AT A TIME

    Quote Originally Posted by Danno
    i got nothing, you win again.
    Quote Originally Posted by resolve
    I trust God more than I trust you. And that will never change. I've always viewed you as kind of a snake. No biblical connotations need apply, just the regular ones. You're wise. You're really intelligent. But you're also conniving and have this way of getting what you want when you want it. The sickness I was talking about was your propensity to kind of reach in and grasp on to something to define someone here. You harangue them about it and manipulate it in to conversations. You do that with every single poster here. You do this until they see things your way. The "correct way". It's vile.

  4. #34


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    Hmmmm.... Do you seriously not get this or are you just pulling my leg?
    Quote Originally Posted by Cullion View Post
    Trump can't actually win an election.. can he ?
    Quote Originally Posted by MerkinMuffly View Post
    Short answer is no.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cullion View Post
    I think you're right here.

  5. #35
    If I die before I wake.. Cullion's Avatar
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    I really really get it. They chose a method of calculating expected value that they shouldn't in this circumstance and then tried to use it to say something faux-profound about economics. It's a classic strawman argument. My way of examing the expected outcome uses simple higI hschool algebra and comes up with a result that agrees with montecarlo simulation. I saw straight through the strawman. You're probably going to examine the wikipedia page about expectation value now to try and figure out what they did wrong.
    ONE SOUL AT A TIME

    Quote Originally Posted by Danno
    i got nothing, you win again.
    Quote Originally Posted by resolve
    I trust God more than I trust you. And that will never change. I've always viewed you as kind of a snake. No biblical connotations need apply, just the regular ones. You're wise. You're really intelligent. But you're also conniving and have this way of getting what you want when you want it. The sickness I was talking about was your propensity to kind of reach in and grasp on to something to define someone here. You harangue them about it and manipulate it in to conversations. You do that with every single poster here. You do this until they see things your way. The "correct way". It's vile.

  6. #36


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    Their method of calculating expectation doesn't model reality.
    That's the point!
    Quote Originally Posted by Cullion View Post
    Trump can't actually win an election.. can he ?
    Quote Originally Posted by MerkinMuffly View Post
    Short answer is no.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cullion View Post
    I think you're right here.

  7. #37


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    I think you are both confused.

  8. #38
    If I die before I wake.. Cullion's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin View Post
    That's the point!
    But it's obvious that it doesn't, and their following arguments don't illuminate anything about human behaviour or economic s because they're based on a stupid strawman that people assess risk and reward using the wrong statistical formulae. That's a dumb as fuck argument.
    Last edited by Cullion; 20th December 19 at 01:18 PM.
    ONE SOUL AT A TIME

    Quote Originally Posted by Danno
    i got nothing, you win again.
    Quote Originally Posted by resolve
    I trust God more than I trust you. And that will never change. I've always viewed you as kind of a snake. No biblical connotations need apply, just the regular ones. You're wise. You're really intelligent. But you're also conniving and have this way of getting what you want when you want it. The sickness I was talking about was your propensity to kind of reach in and grasp on to something to define someone here. You harangue them about it and manipulate it in to conversations. You do that with every single poster here. You do this until they see things your way. The "correct way". It's vile.

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