Page 2 of 2 FirstFirst 12
Results 11 to 20 of 20

Thread: EXPLAIN URSELF CULLIONZ!!!

  1. #11


    Yes | No

    Default

    Oh THAT graph! Well you're wrong..... very wrong...

    The point of the figure is that the expected value of gambling is very much not indicative of what happens typically for longer trajectories.

    We can already see this pattern if we consider gambling twice. With probability one half, we gain 50% in value, the other outcome is losing 40%.

    Starting with wealth 1 if we win twice, we have 2.25. But the other possible outcomes are 0.9 if we win once and 0.36 if we lose twice. The expected value is 1.1025, larger than 1.

    In general we have..

    EGamble[Wt+1|Wt=w] = w + 0.5⋅0.5⋅w − 0.5⋅0.4⋅w = 1.05w

    Iterating that forward gives..

    EGamble[Wh|W0 = 1] = 1.05^h

    or

    log_10(E[.]) = hlog_10(1.05)

    That's the blue line in the plot.
    Last edited by Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin; 2 Days Ago at 05:30 AM. Reason: BREXIT!!!
    Quote Originally Posted by Cullion View Post
    Trump can't actually win an election.. can he ?
    Quote Originally Posted by MerkinMuffly View Post
    Short answer is no.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cullion View Post
    I think you're right here.

  2. #12


    Yes | No

    Default

    You're welcome.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cullion View Post
    Trump can't actually win an election.. can he ?
    Quote Originally Posted by MerkinMuffly View Post
    Short answer is no.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cullion View Post
    I think you're right here.

  3. #13
    If I die before I wake.. Cullion's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    39,836


    Yes | No

    Default

    nope, you're wrong. the expected value is not half the value of 2 wins. It's the expected value of the most likely outcome, which is one win and one loss.
    ONE SOUL AT A TIME

    Quote Originally Posted by Danno
    i got nothing, you win again.
    Quote Originally Posted by resolve
    I trust God more than I trust you. And that will never change. I've always viewed you as kind of a snake. No biblical connotations need apply, just the regular ones. You're wise. You're really intelligent. But you're also conniving and have this way of getting what you want when you want it. The sickness I was talking about was your propensity to kind of reach in and grasp on to something to define someone here. You harangue them about it and manipulate it in to conversations. You do that with every single poster here. You do this until they see things your way. The "correct way". It's vile.

  4. #14
    Quote Originally Posted by Cullion View Post
    Trump can't actually win an election.. can he ?
    Quote Originally Posted by MerkinMuffly View Post
    Short answer is no.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cullion View Post
    I think you're right here.

  5. #15
    If I die before I wake.. Cullion's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    39,836


    Yes | No

    Default

    I do understand basic statistics, that's why my expected result agrees with the montecarlo simulation, and yours doesn't.
    Last edited by Cullion; 2 Days Ago at 04:58 PM.
    ONE SOUL AT A TIME

    Quote Originally Posted by Danno
    i got nothing, you win again.
    Quote Originally Posted by resolve
    I trust God more than I trust you. And that will never change. I've always viewed you as kind of a snake. No biblical connotations need apply, just the regular ones. You're wise. You're really intelligent. But you're also conniving and have this way of getting what you want when you want it. The sickness I was talking about was your propensity to kind of reach in and grasp on to something to define someone here. You harangue them about it and manipulate it in to conversations. You do that with every single poster here. You do this until they see things your way. The "correct way". It's vile.

  6. #16
    If I die before I wake.. Cullion's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    39,836


    Yes | No

    Default

    you're not able to spot misapplication of textbook methods even when they produce glaringly incorrect results, are you ?
    ONE SOUL AT A TIME

    Quote Originally Posted by Danno
    i got nothing, you win again.
    Quote Originally Posted by resolve
    I trust God more than I trust you. And that will never change. I've always viewed you as kind of a snake. No biblical connotations need apply, just the regular ones. You're wise. You're really intelligent. But you're also conniving and have this way of getting what you want when you want it. The sickness I was talking about was your propensity to kind of reach in and grasp on to something to define someone here. You harangue them about it and manipulate it in to conversations. You do that with every single poster here. You do this until they see things your way. The "correct way". It's vile.

  7. #17


    Yes | No

    Default

    Quote Originally Posted by Cullion View Post
    I do understand basic statistics
    If that was true you wouldn't have made such a cock up interperating that graph & recognized it as a version of the Gambler's Ruin paradox.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cullion View Post
    Trump can't actually win an election.. can he ?
    Quote Originally Posted by MerkinMuffly View Post
    Short answer is no.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cullion View Post
    I think you're right here.

  8. #18
    If I die before I wake.. Cullion's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    39,836


    Yes | No

    Default

    I haven't misinterpreted the graph. They've simply assessed the expected value incorrectly. I predicted the behaviour correctly with simple high school algebra.

    Only an idiot would bet on a situation where the most likely outcome resulted in a 10% loss every 2 rounds.

    I can walk you through it if you're struggling.
    ONE SOUL AT A TIME

    Quote Originally Posted by Danno
    i got nothing, you win again.
    Quote Originally Posted by resolve
    I trust God more than I trust you. And that will never change. I've always viewed you as kind of a snake. No biblical connotations need apply, just the regular ones. You're wise. You're really intelligent. But you're also conniving and have this way of getting what you want when you want it. The sickness I was talking about was your propensity to kind of reach in and grasp on to something to define someone here. You harangue them about it and manipulate it in to conversations. You do that with every single poster here. You do this until they see things your way. The "correct way". It's vile.

  9. #19


    Yes | No

    Default

    Go for it...
    Quote Originally Posted by Cullion View Post
    Trump can't actually win an election.. can he ?
    Quote Originally Posted by MerkinMuffly View Post
    Short answer is no.
    Quote Originally Posted by Cullion View Post
    I think you're right here.

  10. #20
    If I die before I wake.. Cullion's Avatar
    Join Date
    Mar 2005
    Posts
    39,836


    Yes | No

    Default

    Which part are you stuck on ?
    ONE SOUL AT A TIME

    Quote Originally Posted by Danno
    i got nothing, you win again.
    Quote Originally Posted by resolve
    I trust God more than I trust you. And that will never change. I've always viewed you as kind of a snake. No biblical connotations need apply, just the regular ones. You're wise. You're really intelligent. But you're also conniving and have this way of getting what you want when you want it. The sickness I was talking about was your propensity to kind of reach in and grasp on to something to define someone here. You harangue them about it and manipulate it in to conversations. You do that with every single poster here. You do this until they see things your way. The "correct way". It's vile.

Posting Permissions

  • You may not post new threads
  • You may not post replies
  • You may not post attachments
  • You may not edit your posts
  •  
◮ Top