Brexit? Yay or Nay?

[Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin]

Leaving the European Union could cost Britain £224bn while other EU nations would suffer only minor economic losses if it withdrew, according to a major new study.

Bertelsmann Stiftung, a German think tank, found that the UK economy would grow more slowly after losing the benefits of trading with its EU partners. The first study of the impact of “Brexit” (British exit) for the EU as a whole predicted “long-term negative consequences” for the UK but a “significantly smaller” economic effect for the rest of the 28-nation bloc.

In Britain, the sectors worst hit by losing the link with the EU’s single market would include chemicals, financial services, automative and mechanical engineering.

The study looked at three scenarios for 2030 after “Brexit” in 2018. In the most favourable case, the UK would win a status similar to Switzerland and a trade agreement with its former EU partners. In the worst scenario, Britain would lose its free trade agreements. The loss in gross domestic product (GDP) per head would range from 0.6 to 3 per cent, with the worst case scenario costing the UK economy £224bn.

Full Indy article




And from a perspective close to my own concerns...

A British exit from the EU would be catastrophic for universities and scientific research, leading academics and scientists say, warning it would cost tens of millions of pounds in funding and leave prestigious UK institutions struggling to compete on the world stage.
....
Scientists from fields as diverse as neuroscience, astronomy, robotics, immunology, particle physics, sustainable agriculture, molecular biology, nanotechnology, cancer and photon therapy say a “Brexit” would lead to funding cuts, make recruiting and retaining top academic talent harder, and – crucially – cripple the cross-border collaboration on which research thrives.
....
Smith, an international relations theorist, said “all the evidence in the world” shows that “the best research is done by people working internationally”. He added: “The most successful knowledge economy is where people publish together with people in other countries. EU membership makes that immeasurably easier.”

By this yardstick the UK does “unbelievably well”, Smith said. In 1981, 84% of UK research was published bearing just a UK address; by last year, the figure was 48%. In the US, it remains 67%.

That fact alone – that a higher proportion of UK than US research is authored by scientists of more than one nationality – explained why Britain, which represents just 0.9% of the global population, 3.2% of research and development expenditure and 4.1% of researchers, now accounted for 15.9% of the world’s most highly-cited scientific research articles, Smith said – a score that put it in first position globally, ahead of the US.

Full Guardian article

So should the UK jump ship (show your working)?


Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=GqH21LEmfbQ

[Üser Friendly]

A Brexit could benefit Ireland as it would be the only native English speaking country in the EU, and would thus attract the UKs share of US investment

The down side could be less trade between UK and RoI, but I'm sure a treaty could be agreed to limit import/export duties

[Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin]

Although Ireland is growing less reliant on the UK - it is still our primary market. Ireland exports 16 percent of all manufactured goods - and 19 percent of our services to British markets. This rises to 40 percent of all Ireland's food and drink exports.

Ireland also imports 34 percent of its goods from Britain - and 18 percent of its services.

Given Ireland's exposure as a small open economy - and our strong reliance on the British market - disruption to this trade will involve significant costs for the Irish economy.

If the UK leaves the EU and fails to agree an open trade deal - trading between the UK and Ireland would be subject to new tariffs. Given the amount of trade even minimal tariffs would be very costly to Irish businesses.

Irish companies would also be hit by new border costs as a new customs border is created between Ireland and the UK - leading to new administrative costs.

From: News Talk article - Three reasons why Ireland should fear the UK leaving the EU

That's a significant amount of trade.

[Üser Friendly]

Trade between the two states will not cease just because the UK leaves the EU

RoI trades with many states outside the EU

The advantage of trading within the EU is mainly the absence of trade tarrifs

A pragmatic solution will be found

[Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin]

So are you in favour of the UK leaving the EU?

[NoBowie]

I think all of the leftist Brits and religious zealot Brits should leave the globe.

[MerkinMuffly]

So the left and the right.

[NoBowie]

So the left and a large percentage of the right.

Yeah.

[Üser Friendly]

So are you in favour of the UK leaving the EU?

I am neutral, but I don't think the brits have the balls to go it alone. After all the Empire is but a distant opium dream

As we speak the civil servants are feverishly trying to work out a way to stay in

[Cullion]

I'm not saying that leaving the EU is definitely the right thing to do, but it's a false premise to claim that leaving the EU means you cannot trade with it.

The article doesn't really address what happens in the 'switzerland' like case (which was included in the study), and it seems to ignore the fact that being outside the EU leaves us free to increase our trade with other nations (including commonwealth nations and the US).