So apparently the 2nd civil war is coming.

[EuropIan]

After read this thread on Bullshido, it made me think about something (also i feel bad about opening such a can o' worms in the armory):

The situation could become bad enough for a militiaist's wet dream to come true.

Also: Fox News (omg I get to shoot Mexicans 0oo000ooh*splurt*)


Link: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SbiXTidsoh8



So, what are you talking about, Ian?

Well for one thing, while it is normal for the amount of militias to flare up in times of presidents of the democratic pursuasion, the above average amount of fear coupled with the "Abomination" (read: Obamanation) and with alarmist media doing what they do best, dumb people could do dumb things.

However it's important to note the caveat that all out civil war isn't highly likely, because most people are too indiferent to care. And this could just be fox news grasping at straws as a desperate cry for attention.

In conclusion: Obama better be mighty carefull when stirring the pot

and stock up on ammo. Just in case.

So.. how is your survival shelter coming along?

[EuropIan]

poll added

[Cullion]

I don't think there will be civil war in the US over anything Obama does in particular.

I do expect angrier protests against financial institutions that might flare up into serious disorder, as we're seeing in parts of Europe. It depends how high unemployment gets and how threadbare the assistance budget gets for these people. I expect any such problems to be more severe in the UK than in the US. Our economy is going to be hit harder and the Labour government has already been much less popular than the Obama administration for some time.

Civilisation in large part relies on the bulk of the populace having full bellies and reasonably secure shelter. Even seriously politically disaffected people won't generally go beyond peaceful verbal protest because criminal charges and getting your name on a no-fly list like that are seriously disruptive to your ability to earn a living.

I think that stops mattering so much if you've been unemployed for a long time and the welfare budget is so tight that large numbers of people experience problems getting hold of the basics.

Am I preparing for 'trouble' ?

Well, no weapons caches or bunkers. I am being a lot more careful with money, talking the wife into starting a vegetable garden and planning on starting to brew my own beer, just to make unemployment a little more bearable if it comes my way. I've let a couple of my oldest and closest friends who have marginal jobs know that they can sleep at my place for as long as they need if they lose their jobs and get evicted.

[WarPhalange]

Yeah, people are getting up in arms and ready for blood now, when it's too late.

Nothing will come of it. Like Cullion said, people are afraid of their own consequences to do something so drastic. Especially since these days travel is very important, and it would be pretty easy to shut down airports. I think that would be one of the first things to happen anyway, since people would be too afraid to fly with people from the other half of the country, etc.

The worst thing about this is that even if they did storm the White House, nothing would happen. This isn't up to the government anymore. Bailout or no bailout, bad things are happening and will happen for some time.

And how are you going to storm a corporation? They just disband or go somewhere else. Plus, now you don't have all that shit that you bought from them in the first place.

[SFGOON]

<facepalm>

[EuropIan]

<facepalm>

I like the cut of your pokemans, sir.


--------------------------------


Anyways, I first started thinking about this when I saw Rick Santelli do his little "lets have a tea party" rant.. That when I realized. Oh god.. people are that dumb

[Cullion]

Yeah, people are getting up in arms and ready for blood now, when it's too late.

Nothing will come of it. Like Cullion said, people are afraid of their own consequences to do something so drastic. Especially since these days travel is very important, and it would be pretty easy to shut down airports. I think that would be one of the first things to happen anyway, since people would be too afraid to fly with people from the other half of the country, etc.

The worst thing about this is that even if they did storm the White House, nothing would happen. This isn't up to the government anymore. Bailout or no bailout, bad things are happening and will happen for some time.

I don't picture anybody storming the Whitehouse. I think most people upset about the bailout still see Obama as being on their side even if they come to judge so of what he did as mistakes. WTO protests in Seattle? I picture things like that, but moar and bigger, and aimed at financial institution headquarters.

And how are you going to storm a corporation? They just disband or go somewhere else. Plus, now you don't have all that shit that you bought from them in the first place.

That logic doesn't stop people from trying it in lots of countries. But I don't think Americans will do that. However, I voted for the second option because it shouldn't be discounted completely. It would take one of the following 2 things to happen

i) Total financial collapse of the Federal Government, i.e. an even simillar to what brought the Soviet Union to it's knees (George Soros has been drawing these sorts of parallels lately).

ii) Massively heavy-handed governmental reaction to the types of protests described above which somehow get widely reported with an anti-government slant in mainstream media.

[Stick]

So I should go down to the gun store across the street and pick up my Mossberg 500 now?

[HappyOldGuy]

People in most of the country still don't understand what the economic cycle we're in means, although they are starting to. The market and financial stuff is the leading indicator. The unemployment and the real pain comes after as all the money that magically vanished in the financial sector gets sucked out of the "real" economy. We are going to face high inflation and unemployment around 10% for the next several years. So in one sense, I think there is alot more bad news yet to come and there are still too many people expecting a magic bullet.

In another sense, we've seen those economic conditions before. It was called the 80's. And other than the fashion choices, it wasn't that bad. The music was actually pretty good..

Internationally is a whole different ballgame, and that is what the serious folks that talking head bobblehead boy was misquoting were saying. I've said before that I don't see China making it through this without experiencing a hard authoritarian crackdown. The mideast oil regimes are another bunch on the faultline who are going to get hurt badly by the combination of low demand and inflation at a time when they are already teetering on collapse. Mexico is obviously already in crisis, and even though the crisis isn't about economics it doesn't seem to be likely to get better in bad economic times.

So yeah. Meh.

Oh yeah, crime in the 80's kinda sucked, so depending on where you live, arming yourself might not be stupid. But america being what it is, the people who will arm themselves are the people who aren't actually at any real risk.

[Cullion]

I think this is going to be worse than the 1980s recession by some margin. I think in terms of relative change of standard of living it's going to be worse than the 30s. The credit overhang which has to be liquidated is larger and you're in more debt. The financial institutions which have either collapsed or had to beg for tens of billions in public assistance all survived the 1930s.