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Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
11th November 15, 08:08 AM
Leaving the European Union could cost Britain £224bn while other EU nations would suffer only minor economic losses if it withdrew, according to a major new study.

Bertelsmann Stiftung, a German think tank, found that the UK economy would grow more slowly after losing the benefits of trading with its EU partners. The first study of the impact of “Brexit” (British exit) for the EU as a whole predicted “long-term negative consequences” for the UK but a “significantly smaller” economic effect for the rest of the 28-nation bloc.

In Britain, the sectors worst hit by losing the link with the EU’s single market would include chemicals, financial services, automative and mechanical engineering.

The study looked at three scenarios for 2030 after “Brexit” in 2018. In the most favourable case, the UK would win a status similar to Switzerland and a trade agreement with its former EU partners. In the worst scenario, Britain would lose its free trade agreements. The loss in gross domestic product (GDP) per head would range from 0.6 to 3 per cent, with the worst case scenario costing the UK economy £224bn.

Full Indy article (http://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/eu-exit-would-hit-uk-economy-much-harder-than-neighbouring-countries-study-finds-10207704.html)




And from a perspective close to my own concerns...


A British exit from the EU would be catastrophic for universities and scientific research, leading academics and scientists say, warning it would cost tens of millions of pounds in funding and leave prestigious UK institutions struggling to compete on the world stage.
....
Scientists from fields as diverse as neuroscience, astronomy, robotics, immunology, particle physics, sustainable agriculture, molecular biology, nanotechnology, cancer and photon therapy say a “Brexit” would lead to funding cuts, make recruiting and retaining top academic talent harder, and – crucially – cripple the cross-border collaboration on which research thrives.
....
Smith, an international relations theorist, said “all the evidence in the world” shows that “the best research is done by people working internationally”. He added: “The most successful knowledge economy is where people publish together with people in other countries. EU membership makes that immeasurably easier.”

By this yardstick the UK does “unbelievably well”, Smith said. In 1981, 84% of UK research was published bearing just a UK address; by last year, the figure was 48%. In the US, it remains 67%.

That fact alone – that a higher proportion of UK than US research is authored by scientists of more than one nationality – explained why Britain, which represents just 0.9% of the global population, 3.2% of research and development expenditure and 4.1% of researchers, now accounted for 15.9% of the world’s most highly-cited scientific research articles, Smith said – a score that put it in first position globally, ahead of the US.

Full Guardian article (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/nov/11/leaving-eu-would-be-a-disaster-british-universities-warn)

So should the UK jump ship (show your working)?

GqH21LEmfbQ

Üser Friendly
11th November 15, 09:08 AM
A Brexit could benefit Ireland as it would be the only native English speaking country in the EU, and would thus attract the UKs share of US investment

The down side could be less trade between UK and RoI, but I'm sure a treaty could be agreed to limit import/export duties

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
11th November 15, 09:21 AM
Although Ireland is growing less reliant on the UK - it is still our primary market. Ireland exports 16 percent of all manufactured goods - and 19 percent of our services to British markets. This rises to 40 percent of all Ireland's food and drink exports.

Ireland also imports 34 percent of its goods from Britain - and 18 percent of its services.

Given Ireland's exposure as a small open economy - and our strong reliance on the British market - disruption to this trade will involve significant costs for the Irish economy.

If the UK leaves the EU and fails to agree an open trade deal - trading between the UK and Ireland would be subject to new tariffs. Given the amount of trade even minimal tariffs would be very costly to Irish businesses.

Irish companies would also be hit by new border costs as a new customs border is created between Ireland and the UK - leading to new administrative costs.

From: News Talk article - Three reasons why Ireland should fear the UK leaving the EU (https://www.newstalk.com/Three-reasons-why-Ireland-should-be-afraid-of-the-UK-leaving-the-EU)

That's a significant amount of trade.

Üser Friendly
11th November 15, 12:57 PM
Trade between the two states will not cease just because the UK leaves the EU

RoI trades with many states outside the EU

The advantage of trading within the EU is mainly the absence of trade tarrifs

A pragmatic solution will be found

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
11th November 15, 01:14 PM
So are you in favour of the UK leaving the EU?

NoBowie
11th November 15, 01:28 PM
I think all of the leftist Brits and religious zealot Brits should leave the globe.

MerkinMuffly
11th November 15, 01:57 PM
So the left and the right.

NoBowie
11th November 15, 02:05 PM
So the left and a large percentage of the right.

Yeah.

Üser Friendly
11th November 15, 03:18 PM
So are you in favour of the UK leaving the EU?

I am neutral, but I don't think the brits have the balls to go it alone. After all the Empire is but a distant opium dream

As we speak the civil servants are feverishly trying to work out a way to stay in

Cullion
11th November 15, 03:23 PM
I'm not saying that leaving the EU is definitely the right thing to do, but it's a false premise to claim that leaving the EU means you cannot trade with it.

The article doesn't really address what happens in the 'switzerland' like case (which was included in the study), and it seems to ignore the fact that being outside the EU leaves us free to increase our trade with other nations (including commonwealth nations and the US).

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
11th November 15, 03:29 PM
If the referendum was tomorrow which way would you vote?

Cullion
11th November 15, 03:33 PM
I don't know. It really depends on the deal offered to keep us in. I am happy with the freedom of travel and trade with the EU.

Things I'd like rolled back?
I want our civil and criminal law to be entirely based on acts passed in parliament, and criminal law to be enforced only by UK courts. I want no barriers to Commonwealth and US trade or immigration.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
22nd February 16, 10:35 AM
So has the panel changed its mind about this?

Its getting closer. Governor of the Bank of England Mark Carney has come out as pro-EU it seems..


Carney, speaking in Oxford on Wednesday evening, said Britain was possibly “the leading beneficiary” of the EU’s single market, and that being in the bloc had been one of the drivers of its strong economic performance in the four decades since it first joined.

“Overall EU membership has increased the openness of the UK economy, facilitating dynamism but also creating some monetary and financial stability challenges for the Bank of England to manage,” Carney said. “Thus far, we have been able to meet these challenges.”

Full Guardian article. (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2015/oct/21/eu-economy-more-dynamic-bank-of-england-chief-mark-carney-referendum)

Pie of Hate
22nd February 16, 10:47 AM
Boris says leave. Carney's argument is invalid.

Feryk
22nd February 16, 01:14 PM
It's really about what comes next for the EU. If Britain wants economic sovereignty, then it should probably leave. That would leave Germany holding a very large bag of debt. The other option is that Britain stays, and becomes an active participant in carving up Southern Europe's economy.

Option A looks better initially, but consider that carefully over another 50 year window. Having influence in the EU could mean that Britain is better able to protect it's trade, get paid back any monies owed, and drive economic development to it's own shores more easily.

Or not. It's complex.

Pie of Hate
22nd February 16, 01:59 PM
It would be nice not having to field project worth north of £1M to Europe but on the downside, we have very few homegrown companies left that that can handle projects of that size and still deliver on (or really close to) budget left. It's a double edged sword to be sure.

Üser Friendly
22nd February 16, 02:14 PM
How will you vote Cake, Dr, Dougie and Cullion?

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
22nd February 16, 02:21 PM
I'm going to be voting to say in unless better arguments are presented. I confess to a personal bias due to the massive cluster fuck this is going to cause Pan-European scientific collaboration & funding.

Pie of Hate
22nd February 16, 03:51 PM
It's a tough vote. I'll need to source some real information, outside of the scaremongering, before I could cast a vote. My gut says to stay but I've yet to come up with a logical reason for this.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
22nd February 16, 05:45 PM
You sound like resolve

Pie of Hate
22nd February 16, 06:06 PM
Not even close! I kept my non-answer to 1 (one) paragraph.

Cullion
22nd February 16, 11:28 PM
How will you vote Cake, Dr, Dougie and Cullion?

I'm going to vote to leave because Cameron's deal is too weak. And it didn't have to be. He doesn't seem to have even asked for much.

Pie of Hate
23rd February 16, 03:55 AM
I didn't notice anything in his 'deal' that would change a thing. Parliament already ignores the European laws it doesn't agree with so I fail to see what he managed to bargain out of them.

I noticed the jocks are getting rowdy again too. Britain leaving the E.U. would trigger another Scottish independence referendum even though Europe still wont commit to saying whether or not it would accept them as an independent nation. Risky business.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
23rd February 16, 05:44 AM
The Welsh arent happy about leaving either.

Pie of Hate
23rd February 16, 06:00 AM
The Welsh arent happy about leaving either.

Are they even considered as real people?

Üser Friendly
23rd February 16, 07:28 AM
Sheep have right to, you know!

Feryk
23rd February 16, 11:48 AM
I didn't notice anything in his 'deal' that would change a thing. Parliament already ignores the European laws it doesn't agree with so I fail to see what he managed to bargain out of them.

I noticed the jocks are getting rowdy again too. Britain leaving the E.U. would trigger another Scottish independence referendum even though Europe still wont commit to saying whether or not it would accept them as an independent nation. Risky business.

He went in weak so he could get an easy win...and then declare victory. It tells you he really wants to stay in.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
23rd February 16, 11:52 AM
Are they even considered as real people?

yca2BCwAnBQ

Pie of Hate
23rd February 16, 11:55 AM
He went in weak so he could get an easy win...and then declare victory. It tells you he really wants to stay in.

It tells me he's got about as much spine as the rest of the cabinet.

Pie of Hate
23rd February 16, 11:56 AM
yca2BCwAnBQ

So that's a no then.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
23rd February 16, 12:04 PM
KGAHJsiyljg

Pie of Hate
23rd February 16, 12:07 PM
Is that the title of the song or just how they announced her entrance?

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
23rd February 16, 12:39 PM
j4m9ptFefwo

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
23rd February 16, 05:47 PM
"What did the EU ever do for us?
Not much, apart from: providing 57% of our trade;
structural funding to areas hit by industrial decline;
clean beaches and rivers;
cleaner air;
lead free petrol;
restrictions on landfill dumping;
a recycling culture;
cheaper mobile charges;
cheaper air travel;
improved consumer protection and food labelling;
a ban on growth hormones and other harmful food additives;
better product safety;
single market competition bringing quality improvements and better industrial performance;
break up of monopolies;
Europe-wide patent and copyright protection;
no paperwork or customs for exports throughout the single market;
price transparency and removal of commission on currency exchanges across the eurozone;
freedom to travel, live and work across Europe;
funded opportunities for young people to undertake study or work placements abroad;
access to European health services;
labour protection and enhanced social welfare;
smoke-free workplaces;
equal pay legislation;
holiday entitlement;
the right not to work more than a 48-hour week without overtime;
strongest wildlife protection in the world;
improved animal welfare in food production;
EU-funded research and industrial collaboration;
EU representation in international forums;
bloc EEA negotiation at the WTO;
EU diplomatic efforts to uphold the nuclear non-proliferation treaty;
European arrest warrant;
cross border policing to combat human trafficking, arms and drug smuggling; counter terrorism intelligence;
European civil and military co-operation in post-conflict zones in Europe and Africa;
support for democracy and human rights across Europe and beyond;
investment across Europe contributing to better living standards and educational, social and cultural capital.
All of this is nothing compared with its greatest achievements: the EU has for 60 years been the foundation of peace between European neighbours after centuries of bloodshed.
It furthermore assisted the extraordinary political, social and economic transformation of 13 former dictatorships, now EU members, since 1980.
Now the union faces major challenges brought on by neoliberal economic globalisation, and worsened by its own systemic weaknesses. It is taking measures to overcome these. We in the UK should reflect on whether our net contribution of £7bn out of total government expenditure of £695bn is good value. We must play a full part in enabling the union to be a force for good in a multi-polar global future.

by Simon Sweeney

Üser Friendly
24th February 16, 01:30 AM
Bastards!

Pie of Hate
24th February 16, 04:11 AM
Switzerland manages to do alright.

Side note - The signing of the NAT brought peace (albeit with a view of defending against a soviet attack), not some free trade agreement.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
24th February 16, 06:27 AM
Yeah I did think he was pushing it with the peace angle.

As for Switzerland, they have about an 8th of the population of the UK, so I'm not sure its that good a comparison.

Üser Friendly
24th February 16, 08:26 AM
A vote to leave is a vote for instability with the promise of a better future

A vote to stay is a vote for stability with the promise of a better future

On balance I think most people will vote to stay

How did UKIP do last election?

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
24th February 16, 08:43 AM
They got 12.6% of the vote. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results)

Pie of Hate
24th February 16, 10:11 AM
Yeah I did think he was pushing it with the peace angle.

As for Switzerland, they have about an 8th of the population of the UK, so I'm not sure its that good a comparison.

Not by GDP, no, but by the first and second order bilateral agreements they managed to get for themselves. Those are the sorts of things 'Call Me Dave' should have been fighting for.

Üser Friendly
24th February 16, 12:18 PM
They got 12.6% of the vote. (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/election/2015/results)

Do you think this will translate directly in the referendum?

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
25th February 16, 02:27 PM
I dont know, I hope not.

Üser Friendly
25th February 16, 04:11 PM
With all of UKIP and half the Conservatives it is only at 36%

With all the Conservatives it's still 49%

It should be a tight race

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
25th February 16, 04:13 PM
I wonder what sort of voter turn out is expected.

There seem to me to be more enthusiastic "out" campaigners who will definitely be voting, I wonder if the "mehhh" camp will be the deciding factor.

Üser Friendly
25th February 16, 04:34 PM
I heard a story that the Scottish Independence vote was lost due to high turn out of women

it was argued that although the men were gung ho about being independent, the prudent lady home makers intervened for the sake of the children (and men)

Cullion
25th February 16, 06:22 PM
A vote to stay is a vote for stability with the promise of a better future

EU membership is not always synonymous with stability

Üser Friendly
26th February 16, 01:12 AM
How do you mean?

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
26th February 16, 08:10 AM
https://giant.gfycat.com/SilkyBoringHorsechestnutleafminer.gif

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
26th February 16, 11:22 AM
'When I go into Downing Street they do what I say; when I go to Brussels they take no notice.' - Rupert Murdock

Cullion
26th February 16, 05:30 PM
How do you mean?

Desperately clinging on to Euro membership is not doing a great deal of good for a lot of the southern economies.

Üser Friendly
27th February 16, 09:43 AM
Desperately clinging on to Euro membership is not doing a great deal of good for a lot of the southern economies.

Do you mean the Euro currency or EU membership?

Cullion
27th February 16, 10:45 AM
The currency. But the currency is part and parcel of the commitment to ever closer political union. The UK was right to resist it.

Üser Friendly
27th February 16, 12:38 PM
So you are voting to leave the EU on the grounds that a currency you are not a part of is bad for Greece

Would you say you are typical of the Out voter?

Adouglasmhor
28th February 16, 03:17 AM
Switzerland manages to do alright.

Side note - The signing of the NAT brought peace (albeit with a view of defending against a soviet attack), not some free trade agreement.
Norway gets screwed over though.

Adouglasmhor
28th February 16, 03:20 AM
I heard a story that the Scottish Independence vote was lost due to high turn out of women

it was argued that although the men were gung ho about being independent, the prudent lady home makers intervened for the sake of the children (and men)

Also older people worried about their pension security, people who worked and paid taxes worried about supporting the vast army of work shy dreamers who fronted the street campaign for yes.

Pie of Hate
28th February 16, 03:57 AM
Seems like Norway wanted it's cake and not only eat it, but go back for seconds. They wanted to keep independence and have all the fun of the EEA. They must have realized that as soon as you sign up to free movement, the country is going to be subject to The EU laws governing that. They also must have noticed that the deal they were going for gave them no voting rights. It all seems self inflicted so I've got little sympathy for Norway.

Adouglasmhor
1st March 16, 01:59 AM
Seems like Norway wanted it's cake and not only eat it, but go back for seconds. They wanted to keep independence and have all the fun of the EEA. They must have realized that as soon as you sign up to free movement, the country is going to be subject to The EU laws governing that. They also must have noticed that the deal they were going for gave them no voting rights. It all seems self inflicted so I've got little sympathy for Norway.
We stabbed them in the back by jumping ship from EFTA to EEC as it was. good job vikings are colossal pussies nowadays.

Pie of Hate
1st March 16, 03:59 AM
They could have have jumped in with the Swiss or Icelandic. Nothing said they had to go it alone. It was a dick move on the part of Britain though.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
1st March 16, 04:11 AM
SO which way you voting Doug?

Pie of Hate
1st March 16, 04:32 AM
I want a referendum on becoming a full republic first. It's time we ended the tyranny of the lords.

Üser Friendly
1st March 16, 06:35 AM
Here here!

Adouglasmhor
1st March 16, 01:02 PM
SO which way you voting Doug? Out seems more likely at the moment. Mutti Merkel looks like she has broken Europe for now.

Adouglasmhor
1st March 16, 01:10 PM
They could have have jumped in with the Swiss or Icelandic. Nothing said they had to go it alone. It was a dick move on the part of Britain though.
Switzerland and Iceland had already been EFTA members when us and Denmark left. We made about the EFTA blocks economic power at the time. Plus our NATO commitments in BAOR made blocking our trade with Germany problematic.

Cullion
4th March 16, 10:34 AM
So you are voting to leave the EU on the grounds that a currency you are not a part of is bad for Greece


No, I'm voting to leave because I don't think the EU comission or the EHCR (EU membership requires accepting EHCR jurisdiction) are democratic, transparent or honest institutions. I want UK law to be sovereign and I don't want to contribute financially to EU political institutions. I'd like our immigration system to be relaxed but based on some kind of sane points system, and open to people form commonwealth and English speaking nations like the US and Australia as much as it is to our continental neighbours.

Robot Jesus
4th March 16, 11:13 AM
anyone else thought this was about a fraudulent gold company from 1995?

Feryk
4th March 16, 11:43 AM
Most of these people have never heard of Bre-X. Or Bro-X, if you recall.

Üser Friendly
4th March 16, 02:27 PM
No, I'm voting to leave because I don't think the EU comission or the EHCR (EU membership requires accepting EHCR jurisdiction) are democratic, transparent or honest institutions. I want UK law to be sovereign and I don't want to contribute financially to EU political institutions. I'd like our immigration system to be relaxed but based on some kind of sane points system, and open to people form commonwealth and English speaking nations like the US and Australia as much as it is to our continental neighbours.

I agree about the lack of accountability to the people in the EU institutions, but there seems little will among member states to change things

How do you think things will play out economically/trade wise if there is an out vote?

Adouglasmhor
5th March 16, 06:28 AM
I agree about the lack of accountability to the people in the EU institutions, but there seems little will among member states to change things

How do you think things will play out economically/trade wise if there is an out vote?
Do you think the Boxheads can afford to risk over a quarter of their trade? That's a fair sized pot to bring to the out treaty negotiation.

Üser Friendly
6th March 16, 04:46 AM
i expect trade will go as normal TBH, with the addition of excise duties being applied, so more expensive

Üser Friendly
6th March 16, 04:57 AM
double post

Cullion
7th March 16, 05:45 AM
We don't need to apply import duties if we don't want to. The EU is not the only way to trade without duties by any stretch of the imagination, that's just part of the sales pitch to saddle Europeans with a new political elite few of them ever wanted or got an honest vote on.

Üser Friendly
7th March 16, 07:22 AM
Is there a record of the EU not applying duties to goods imported from outside the EU?

My guess is they will tax goods from the UK post an out vote, and if the UK wants to remain competitive it will have to follow suit

But whilst trade is very important in the long term, I believe it is the vagaries of the stock markets that will have the biggest impact, certainly in the short to medium term, and the UK's ability to absorb losses to both share prices and currency value

If an exit makes the traders lose confidence in UK Ltd it could be a hard few years for the country

Cullion
8th March 16, 02:45 PM
Is there a record of the EU not applying duties to goods imported from outside the EU?

My guess is they will tax goods from the UK post an out vote, and if the UK wants to remain competitive it will have to follow suit

But we import more from the EU than we export to it, so if they did that they'd be provoking us into a response that hurt them more.



If an exit makes the traders lose confidence in UK Ltd it could be a hard few years for the country

I would worry more about traders losing confidence in an EU without a UK, than a UK without an EU.

Üser Friendly
9th March 16, 01:36 AM
But we import more from the EU than we export to it, so if they did that they'd be provoking us into a response that hurt them more.

Provoking, hurt? There is a lot of Blitz Spirit rhetoric there Cullion. Can you back that up with figures and links. A graph would be nice



I would worry more about traders losing confidence in an EU without a UK, than a UK without an EU.

Well sales of tin foil hats should help burgeon the non EU UK

Cullion
22nd March 16, 04:17 PM
Provoking, hurt? There is a lot of Blitz Spirit rhetoric there Cullion.

You're the one who suggested that deciding we didn't want to share a government with Germany would provoke a trade war.



Can you back that up with figures and links. A graph would be nice

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/international-transactions/outward-foreign-affiliates-statistics/how-important-is-the-european-union-to-uk-trade-and-investment-/sty-eu.html

Yes, I can.

Üser Friendly
23rd March 16, 02:16 AM
You're the one who suggested that deciding we didn't want to share a government with Germany would provoke a trade war.

Except I didn't use the term 'trade war'. That's what I'm talking about. You seem unable to discuss the issue without throwing in some war related rhetoric

You'll be fighting them on the beaches next



http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/rel/international-transactions/outward-foreign-affiliates-statistics/how-important-is-the-european-union-to-uk-trade-and-investment-/sty-eu.html

Yes, I can.

http://webarchive.nationalarchives.gov.uk/20160105160709/http://www.ons.gov.uk/ons/resources/chteufig2_tcm77-408364.png

You might want to walk me through this one, but would I be right in saying red is imports from the EU to the UK, and blue is UK import to the EU?

So on first glance it seems that the EU exports more to the UK than the UK exports to the EU (2014). And as a whole they do. But the EU is 28 separate sovereign states, as you know

Now, the figures do not show which EU states are doing the exporting. There are 27 remaining EU states, so in theory each country is exporting 1:27 of the approx £270 billion, or £10 billion each

So whilst you are quite correct looking at the big picture, each EU state is down by £10 billion where as the UK is still down by £200 billion.

Which country do you think is going to feel it the most? One of the 27 or the UK?

Cullion
23rd March 16, 03:22 AM
Do you think, just perhaps, that the countries that would feel it the most might be the largest EU economies, with a proportionate degree of influence within the EU?

Again, you've made up a conflict, and it's a conflict which the EU would come out of worse.

Üser Friendly
23rd March 16, 03:36 AM
Do you think, just perhaps, that the countries that would feel it the most might be the largest EU economies, with a proportionate degree of influence within the EU?

I think Ireland would feel it the most. You bastards! Germany and France will just go buy their Bibble from some place else


Again, you've made up a conflict, and it's a conflict which the EU would come out of worse.

Again you use jingoistic, saber rattling rhetoric

And LOL at the "the EU would come out of worse."

http://www.voxeu.org/article/britain-s-eu-membership-new-insight-economic-history


The UK’s per capita GDP relative to the EU founding members’ declined steadily from 1945 to 1972. However, it was relatively stable between 1973 and 2010. This suggests substantial benefits from EU membership

Who would you rather be a client state of Cullion? USA, RF, PRC? because those will be your options in the Brexit new world order

Üser Friendly
23rd March 16, 12:46 PM
You see, the world is like a giant prison

If you're not in a gang you gonna get rayped, son

If the UK leaves the EU who's got your back in the shower?

Who's gonna stop stop Botswana from shanking you in the yard?

Who's gonna get you your medication?

You can either be a Playa in the EU or Uncle Sam's wife

But don't worry, he'll treat you like a real Lady, not like Russia or China

Cullion
23rd March 16, 02:37 PM
I think Ireland would feel it the most. You bastards!

Only if you decided not to trade with us just because we left the EU. You don't have to do that. Unless the EU makes you. Is that what you'd want?




And LOL at the "the EU would come out of worse."

They'd lose more export revenue than we would.


he UK’s per capita GDP relative to the EU founding members’ declined steadily from 1945 to 1972. However, it was relatively stable between 1973 and 2010. This suggests substantial benefits from EU membership

That's an entirely spurious correlation. UK per Capita GDP declined during that period because we were a collapsing imperial power. Eventually that collapse stabilised. Would've happened inside or outside the EU. Compare the growth of the following economies over that period: EU, UK, Hong Kong, US, Switzerland, Australia





Who would you rather be a client state of Cullion? USA, RF, PRC? because those will be your options in the Brexit new world order

The USA

NoBowie
23rd March 16, 02:43 PM
The USA

YEAH!!!! USA!!!!

Üser Friendly
24th March 16, 01:44 AM
Only if you decided not to trade with us just because we left the EU. You don't have to do that. Unless the EU makes you. Is that what you'd want?

If the UK became belligerent and began a trade war with the EU, as you seem to be suggesting, the hard decisions would have to be made and Ireland would have to consider it's position carefully. It would be a hard choice.

On the upside, as the only English speaking EU state, Ireland could get more extra-EU direct investment, which is nice


They'd lose more export revenue than we would.

Would you show the numbers for that?


That's an entirely spurious correlation. UK per Capita GDP declined during that period because we were a collapsing imperial power. Eventually that collapse stabilised. Would've happened inside or outside the EU.

That is pure speculation on your part


Compare the growth of the following economies over that period: EU, UK, Hong Kong, US, Switzerland, Australia

Go on then

Üser Friendly
24th March 16, 12:29 PM
Speculation about trade wars aside, Ireland could come into conflict with IUK (Independent UK) if they try to compete Corporation Tax wise with Ireland to attract foreign investment

Could the UK try for a Tax Haven style business model?

Cullion
24th March 16, 01:10 PM
If the UK became belligerent and began a trade war with the EU, as you seem to be suggesting, the hard decisions would have to be made and Ireland would have to consider it's position carefully. It would be a hard choice.

It wouldn't. You're suggesting that the EU would start a trade war with us if we left.



Would you show the numbers for that?

Already did.



That is pure speculation on your part


No it isn't. It's based on history and the underperformance of the EU relative to the other economies I cited.



Go on then

You find the figures and prove me wrong. Otherwise the point stands. I am right by default.

Üser Friendly
24th March 16, 03:50 PM
It wouldn't. You're suggesting that the EU would start a trade war with us if we left.

I suggested the EU would impose import duties and the UK would follow suit. Not quite a trade war, but nice try


Already did.

I have already shown that once the loss is federalised IUK comes out way worse than each individual member state so...


No it isn't. It's based on history and the underperformance of the EU relative to the other economies I cited.

Perhaps you could expand on this history andunderperformance, or I will be right by default. Apparently


You find the figures and prove me wrong. Otherwise the point stands. I am right by default.

LOL. I'm not doing your leg work. Don't bother making claims if you can't be bothered backing them up

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
31st May 16, 02:58 PM
Nine out of 10 of the country’s top economists working across academia, the City, industry, small businesses and the public sector believe the British economy will be harmed by Brexit, according to the biggest survey of its kind ever conducted.

A poll commissioned for the Observer and carried out by Ipsos MORI, which drew responses from more than 600 economists, found 88% saying an exit from the EU and the single market would most likely damage Britain’s growth prospects over the next five years.

A striking 82% of the economists who responded thought there would probably be a negative impact on household incomes over the next five years in the event of a Leave vote, with 61% thinking unemployment would rise.

Those surveyed were members of the profession’s most respected representative bodies, the Royal Economic Society and the Society of Business Economists, and all who replied did so voluntarily.

Paul Johnson, director of the independent Institute for Fiscal Studies, said the findings, from a survey unprecedented in its scale, showed an extraordinary level of unity. “For a profession known to agree about little, it is pretty remarkable to see this degree of consensus about anything,” Johnson said. “It no doubt reflects the level of agreement among many economists about the benefits of free trade and the costs of uncertainty for economic growth.”


Economists overwhelmingly reject Brexit (http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2016/may/28/economists-reject-brexit-boost-cameron?utm_source=esp&utm_medium=Email&utm_campaign=GU+Today+main+NEW+H+categories&utm_term=174632&subid=5341086&CMP=EMCNEWEML6619I2)

Syntactical Disruptorize
1st June 16, 01:07 PM
Yes, good thing you're not a known partisan lying asshole. I'll totally look into that.

Feryk
1st June 16, 03:45 PM
Here is the actual survey results and the question that was asked.

https://www.ipsos-mori.com/researchpublications/researcharchive/3739/Economists-Views-on-Brexit.aspx#

I wondered if they were diddling with the question to obtain a given result. This one isn't perfect, but it's specific enough to give you a decent dataset.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
21st June 16, 06:28 AM
Professor of European Law at the University of Liverpool, Professor Dougan provides his viewpoint on the EU referendum, and discussed the facts and figures circulated by both the ‘Leave’ and ‘Remain’ campaigns.

USTypBKEd8Y

Syntactical Disruptorize
21st June 16, 06:55 AM
Here's some guy who agrees with me, carefully presented without context, rebuttal, or anything but a sheer appeal to authority. But you can trust me! I'm a scientician!

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
21st June 16, 07:39 AM
Not just some guy as I put in the sentence above the video, he is an acknowledged expert in the EU. (https://www.liverpool.ac.uk/law/staff/michael-dougan/). The appeal to his particular authority is not fallacious in this matter.

Syntactical Disruptorize
21st June 16, 08:04 AM
He's my hand-picked guy, not just some guy! I won't address any of the rest of that, and I'm gonna keep appealing to authority because the think-alikes are on my side! Waaahhhh

Harpy
21st June 16, 08:07 AM
I believe that sweet moron David Beckham has also put his two cents in.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
21st June 16, 09:34 AM
I have no idea what I'm talking about

Feryk
21st June 16, 12:08 PM
That's not what he's saying. He's saying that YOU haven't done the work - other than to find supporting evidence for your own point of view.

Syntactical Disruptorize
21st June 16, 12:26 PM
That's not what he's saying. He's saying that YOU haven't done the work - other than to find supporting evidence for your own point of view.
That, and to get him to reflect on the costs of burning his own credibility. Being a partisan asshole who is known to distort facts and cherry-pick evidence has a price, and he's paying it.

Cullion
23rd June 16, 10:35 AM
Professor of European Law at the University of Liverpool, Professor Dougan provides his viewpoint on the EU referendum, and discussed the facts and figures circulated by both the ‘Leave’ and ‘Remain’ campaigns.

USTypBKEd8Y

He has two grants listed on his university page. One is the Jean Monnet chair (named after a founder of the EU and funded by them). The other is a direct EU grant.

Most of his talk is not about the law but his subjective opinion on trade, the honesty of the press etc..

This is a paid EU supporter giving his opinion on things that don't have much to do with his academic publications.

Cullion
23rd June 16, 10:36 AM
However, I did watch a pro-Brexit youtube made for and by left wing Brexit supporters (lots of trade unionists, Tony Benn etc..) and it made the EU sound so fucking great (breaking up the NHS, undermining 'workers rights', letting capital move freely in a way that pisses off left wing politicians) that I'm prepared to make peace with the likely vote for Remain.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z0kuJhkMLWs

Syntactical Disruptorize
23rd June 16, 02:09 PM
See, Max, that's how you gain credibility.

Harpy
24th June 16, 12:36 AM
We've been watching the results roll in all day at the office (our HQ is in the UK). The people have spoken to Brexit, now will the government honour this?

Syntactical Disruptorize
24th June 16, 04:16 AM
The look on Max's face.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
24th June 16, 04:45 AM
Mehh I'm disappointed for sure but I'm not going to moan about the result, it is what it is.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
24th June 16, 07:57 AM
Though I am interested in Ferky & Cullion's analysis of what they see happening economically now?

https://scontent-ams3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13529241_10157013055500697_3460012316134589009_n.j pg?oh=c78da93c9b5993ba71ff8c355ec3035e&oe=5806927E

Syntactical Disruptorize
24th June 16, 10:13 AM
Bullshit. Weep for my amusement.

Well, the butthurt in the above post is a good start.

NoBowie
24th June 16, 10:37 AM
So, when should I plan my UK vacation to maximize the effect of the British Pounds plunge in value?

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
24th June 16, 10:42 AM
Oh yeah I'm not interested in your bullshit at the moment Chuck.

I've enough arguing over the last month & am just fatigued with it. Already instigated my Ogun banishing, it isn't doing me any good at the moment, time to uninstall & stop feeding it.

Feryk
24th June 16, 11:08 AM
So, when should I plan my UK vacation to maximize the effect of the British Pounds plunge in value?
Today, idiot. The panic has set in, and the pound is way oversold.

Cullion
24th June 16, 11:17 AM
The UK stock market and pound's value have to be seen in a bigger context. The value has substantially recovered and we're not talking about the volumes of money involved in the subprime crisis or the Eurozone crisis that started in Greece.

What's important now is that whoever replaces Cameron honours the suggestion to replace the immigration system with something relaxed but meritocratic (closer to the Australian points system, no issues for skilled professionals), and generally sticks to a pro-Business agenda whilst free of the EU constraints that didn't make sense.

If a wildly-excitable anti-immigration campaigner were to somehow replace him *then* we are fucked.

MerkinMuffly
24th June 16, 11:50 AM
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/746272130992644096?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Feryk
24th June 16, 11:54 AM
Though I am interested in Ferky & Cullion's analysis of what they see happening economically now?

https://scontent-ams3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13529241_10157013055500697_3460012316134589009_n.j pg?oh=c78da93c9b5993ba71ff8c355ec3035e&oe=5806927E

Short term - panic and stupidity will set in. Already seeing it. If you had an eye on a particular investment, today is a good day to buy it. Longer term - political instability in the UK will probably keep the pound depressed and at least a few multinational organizations will start to move their offices to more 'Euro friendly' areas. Some of your banks are already considering relocating to Dublin.

This caught your politicians by surprise. Once you have a new PM, the negotiations of exactly how this is going to work can begin. Most analysts think this will take at least 2 years. In the meantime, a bunch of international agreements will have to be renegotiated. Canada, for example, is just about ready to sign a free trade agreement with the EU. We will have to now consider whether or not we want to continue in that arena. A big incentive for us was to supply LNG to the UK. That will now require a separate agreement.

I think you can probably expect Scotland to demand another referendum. From what I'm reading the vote broke down pretty heavily to remain in London and other big cities, while the more rural vote was to exit. There also seems to be an age split as well.

The real question will be how isolationist the UK government will want to be now. The vote seemed to indicate that most UK citizens don't want to take refugees, or allow the free flow of labour into the UK (polish tradesman, for example). My feeling is that you can probably expect a recession that will last awhile.

Feryk
24th June 16, 11:55 AM
https://twitter.com/realDonaldTrump/status/746272130992644096?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Give him a few days and he'll take credit for the whole thing.

Feryk
24th June 16, 12:14 PM
Oh, and FWIW, the sector I'm most interested in right now are Euro Mid Cap stocks. Those companies are typically large enough to capture market Euro wide, but they have centralized all their services in one or two centres. With the Brexit, they will have to expand their UK operations to support the UK if they so choose (or leave entirely). There will be substantial volatility here over the next few weeks, so I'm watching carefully.

MerkinMuffly
24th June 16, 01:41 PM
lol
http://www.politico.eu/article/donald-trump-on-brexit-huh-uk-eu-referendum-date-june-23-news-america-president-election/

Syntactical Disruptorize
24th June 16, 01:52 PM
Oh yeah I'm not interested in your bullshit at the moment Chuck.
Fuck you. If you hadn't chosen to take one more cheap shot, I'd have let you deal, but fuck you, you moral fraud.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
24th June 16, 01:57 PM
Awww Chucky Wookie upset?

Syntactical Disruptorize
24th June 16, 02:03 PM
Awww Chucky Wookie upset?
Why should I be? You're the one who just got pantsed.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
24th June 16, 02:17 PM
uhuh

Syntactical Disruptorize
24th June 16, 02:18 PM
uhuh
That only works if you have credibility. You have none.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
24th June 16, 02:53 PM
uhuh

Syntactical Disruptorize
24th June 16, 02:55 PM
uhuh
Harry Potter, in the Methods of Rationality offshoot, once remarked that if he lied the first time, he wouldn't tell the truth merely because he was asked again.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
24th June 16, 03:08 PM
uhuh

Syntactical Disruptorize
24th June 16, 03:31 PM
I know you're not very smart, Max, but this is pretty dumb even for you.

Syntactical Disruptorize
24th June 16, 03:34 PM
The reason you're losing here may be directly related to a reason Brexit won.

NoBowie
24th June 16, 03:41 PM
What I find hilarious is the young lefties in Britain are complaining about the ridiculousness of old conservatives who voted to leave because of the idea that a group of religious conservative immigrants were ruining the country.

So a group you tried to tolerate and be inclusive of is ruining the country? Gee...

Best twitter response so far:

http://i.imgur.com/vK4ErWK.jpg

Harpy
24th June 16, 04:30 PM
Cameron is a dog for resigning and not taking responsibility for setting this in motion. Instead of calling for unity he acts like a selfish little prig.

Syntactical Disruptorize
24th June 16, 04:51 PM
Hey, Doc, do you think this came about because elitist liberals became unresponsive and oblivious to the desires of the working class?

Feryk
24th June 16, 05:26 PM
DING!!!

Feryk
24th June 16, 05:26 PM
Cameron is a dog for resigning and not taking responsibility for setting this in motion. Instead of calling for unity he acts like a selfish little prig.

He lost his moral authority to lead. He put his leadership on the line as part of the vote. That alone might have been a tipping point for some voters.

Harpy
24th June 16, 05:30 PM
His timing could have been better. I think he's been a good PM - just this announcement after the heated build up to the referendum just added drama to an already whipped up situation.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
24th June 16, 05:32 PM
Hey, Doc, do you think this came about because elitist liberals became unresponsive and oblivious to the desires of the working class?

Yes

Syntactical Disruptorize
24th June 16, 05:36 PM
Yes

Well, congratulations, I guess.

NoBowie
24th June 16, 05:58 PM
Hey, Doc, do you think this came about because elitist liberals became unresponsive and oblivious to the desires of the working class?

I think this is an interesting dynamic in the left side of the political spectrum. It is hard to protect high paying union type jobs and fulfill the 'every culture is valid, you can't judge' rhetoric with loose immigration laws at the same time.

Syntactical Disruptorize
24th June 16, 07:32 PM
It's very hard to reconcile a welfare state and open borders. This is doubly true if most of your conviction that you're clever stems from holding opinions that you think align you with clever people. The idea that this emperor is naked is too terrifying to occur to the poor dears.

NoBowie
28th June 16, 01:11 PM
http://i.imgur.com/CIDfhGz.jpg

Cullion
29th June 16, 06:47 PM
Although we've seen the stock market ping up again the last couple of days, I still expect this to get worse and there to be a brief recession. We'll survive.

Once we have some new trade deals signed we'll be able to grow quite fast because I expect real long term benefits from being freed up from EU bureaucracy and being forced to favour trade with other over-regulated low-growth countries.

The rest of Europe needs to worry about being competitive compared to Canada, Australia, the US, the Caribbean and Asia again. We're open for business.

Two things that have disappointed me though:-

i) They're a tiny minority, but a few crawly little far-right insects have crawled out of the woodwork because they think the referendum result is some kind of vindication for their views. There are anecdotes (mostly the same few incidents repeated) of grafitti and abusive language to immigrants all over social media and a spanish woman I work with had some old man grab her arm and yell abuse at her about Spanish corruption out of the blue, without provocation.

ii) The way many disappointed remain voters are behaving is just embarrassing. They're practically hyperventilating, telling each other scary stories about how we're all a few months away from having to boil shoe leather to survive. The unthinkable disaster scenario they're worried about is one where the EU charges a 5% tariff on our exports and we retaliate by reminding them that we buy more from them than they do from us so they need to calm down or we'll charge the same tariff back. The majority of the same people would swallow 5% corporation or personal tax rises at a general election without batting an eyelid. They're highly reliant on authority figures telling them what's okay and 'normal' and what isn't, the absence of clear authority just for a few days makes them completely lose their shit.

I understand now that politicians serve a useful social function; they're a lightening rod for blame and disappointment. When there aren't authority figures to sullenly and ineffectually complain to and about.. we turn on each other. Politics becomes personal in a new and mostly unpleasant way. I understand now why American politics involves so many ordinary people yelling at each other in town hall meetings and in the street.. it's because you're actually freer people who are used to working without as much of an 'authority lightening-rod', or at least you were until very recently. Most Europeans find this frightening and can't really handle it.

It's only taken 3 generations of comfortable living and 'experimental' educational techniques to take a population that stood up to nightly carpet bombing from Hitler to their grandchildren bursting into tears whenever the stock market takes a brief dip. Utterly pathetic. About half the population seems to have completely lost any sense of what real risk or hardship entail.

These are the people the American founders spoke about when they talked about 'people who'd give up freedom for a little security will get neither'. I see it very clearly now.

Syntactical Disruptorize
29th June 16, 07:46 PM
The whole thing is sad. It appears to have been decided by people screaming and jeering at one another. The analogy to America is obvious and has been made enough times, I'm sure.

Harpy
29th June 16, 08:14 PM
One of my aunts there (retired nurse in Bristol), told me I'd get punched in the face after I told her to calm down on Facebook (she keeps posting stupid crap, the end is nigh, the rest of the world doesn't understand, on the politicians have broken their promises...waaah waaah).

Syntactical Disruptorize
29th June 16, 08:28 PM
http://theweek.com/articles/632380/how-brexit-shattered-progressives-dearest-illusions


But what if progressivism isn't inevitable at all? What if people will always be inclined by nature to love their own — themselves, their families, their neighbors, members of their churches, their fellow citizens, their country — more than they love the placeless abstraction of "humanity"? In that case, the act of ignoring or even denigrating this love will have the effect of provoking its defensive wrath and ultimately making it stronger.

It makes perfect sense to be surprised, saddened, and concerned by the outcome of the Brexit vote. But shock? Fury? Disgust? Despair? That's what a person feels when he discovers that his most dearly held fundamental beliefs have led him astray.


Wake up, progressives! You have nothing to lose but your illusions.

Sorry, Doc, you're a fundie.

Syntactical Disruptorize
29th June 16, 10:44 PM
One of my aunts there (retired nurse in Bristol), told me I'd get punched in the face after I told her to calm down on Facebook (she keeps posting stupid crap, the end is nigh, the rest of the world doesn't understand, on the politicians have broken their promises...waaah waaah).

Weird. What side is she on? Who does she think will do the punching?

Harpy
29th June 16, 11:05 PM
She's an over 60 'Remain'. Some choice quotes:

"Democracy is all well and good when it works otherwise it sucks like when the Referendum led to the Leave campaign winning."

"Friends of mine have already reported sales declines, these are honest hard working independent people hit by the selfishness of those who voted to Leave."

"So don't tell me to have a cup of tea and calm down and just suck it."

"Your post would warrant a black eye that I would want to avoid."

Syntactical Disruptorize
29th June 16, 11:29 PM
Sigh. More anti-democratic thuggery. I guess we all have annoying relatives.

I recall Antifa tried to scare me once about pro-union thugs taking revenge on me for mocking the idea of a grad student union. His bitchy bullshit didn't work. (In fact, Antifa, if you're reading this, I'll happily meet you in person to see if you can scare me. I think you're a crummy punk and a coward.)

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
30th June 16, 07:35 AM
i) They're a tiny minority, but a few crawly little far-right insects have crawled out of the woodwork because they think the referendum result is some kind of vindication for their views. There are anecdotes (mostly the same few incidents repeated) of grafitti and abusive language to immigrants all over social media and a spanish woman I work with had some old man grab her arm and yell abuse at her about Spanish corruption out of the blue, without provocation.

Yes they have become far more visable in the last week. A freind of mine was attcked in Leeds, she's 2nd gen Caribean & was told to fuck off back home.


]ii) The way many disappointed remain voters are behaving is just embarrassing. They're practically hyperventilating, telling each other scary stories about how we're all a few months away from having to boil shoe leather to survive. The unthinkable disaster scenario they're worried about is one where the EU charges a 5% tariff on our exports and we retaliate by reminding them that we buy more from them than they do from us so they need to calm down or we'll charge the same tariff back. The majority of the same people would swallow 5% corporation or personal tax rises at a general election without batting an eyelid. They're highly reliant on authority figures telling them what's okay and 'normal' and what isn't, the absence of clear authority just for a few days makes them completely lose their shit.


I agree its pretty ugly, its not something I've indulged in. I have been shocked by some of my friends attitudes towards people they have known well for years just because they didn't vote remain.

NoBowie
30th June 16, 11:13 AM
http://i.imgur.com/pzeN8IQ.gif

Cullion
30th June 16, 04:07 PM
The Welsh arent happy about leaving either.

I was surprised when this turned out to be wrong (In Wales there was a narrow majority to leave the EU. I think it might have something to do with steel works closing that EU rules prevented the govt. from saving with subsidies).

Cullion
30th June 16, 04:58 PM
Looking back what I wrote before the vote, about liking trade and travel but not liking intrusion into our criminal law and social policy, or restraints on who else we can trade with, I think EEA membership gives the best of both worlds. This is what Norway and Iceland do.

No EU citizens would face barriers to working here, or us in the rest of Europe.

We can sign our own trade and immigration deals with other non-EU countries, as long as we have a system to stop goods from outside the EU being shipped into the EU (e.g. don't abuse this to turn the UK into a giant smuggling post). This alone could make a lot of basic staples, include food, much cheaper as our supermarket suppliers could shop more widely without tariffs.

Being able to set our own immigration policies for non-EU citizens can make it easier for highly skilled non-EU citizens to work here. I think english speakers with no criminal record from the commonwealth or US should automatically qualify.

We're no longer EU citizens, so if we go to the EU to work the host nation is no longer obliged to treat us as they would their own citizens where welfare etc.. is concerned. This works both ways so it's a net neutral 'libertarian' option.

No chance of getting sucked into supporting an EU military.

Regain our own seats in international orgs like the WTO.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
30th June 16, 05:59 PM
I was surprised when this turned out to be wrong (In Wales there was a narrow majority to leave the EU. I think it might have something to do with steel works closing that EU rules prevented the govt. from saving with subsidies).

Yeah that surprised me given they're net beneficiaries as far as EU funding goes

Syntactical Disruptorize
30th June 16, 09:55 PM
Yeah that surprised me given they're net beneficiaries as far as EU funding goes

Once in a while, people do things out of principle, or in the anticipation of a long term benefit. I'm disgusted that so many on the left in Europe don't get this. I thought it was the conservatives who were supposed to have calculators for hearts.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
1st July 16, 03:14 AM
Mehh people have principles on both sides, your argument cuts both ways IMO.

Disgust, now there's a recurrant theme in your posts.

Syntactical Disruptorize
1st July 16, 07:21 AM
Mehh people have principles on both sides, your argument cuts both ways IMO.
What a Doofa-like misreading. I'll spell it out for you: You are astonished because you think the Welsh acted against their interest, but you have failed to engage with any of your opposition to find out what their interests are. That is why you and your fellow travelers failed to win the day, and you're still fucking doing it. You learned fucking nothing.


Disgust, now there's a recurrant theme in your posts.
The word is "recurrent", unless you're recycling currants, I suppose. Yes, I'm disgusted with you, and I've explained why.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
1st July 16, 07:35 AM
You are astonished because you think the Welsh acted against their interest, but you have failed to engage with any of your opposition to find out what their interests are.That is why you and your fellow travelers failed to win the day, and you're still fucking doing it. You learned fucking nothing.

No I have spent a lot of time engaging with people on the otherside of the debate which is why I'm not running around on social media like Chicken Lickin at the moment. I appreciate the arguments & currenlty see no need to panic as they may well be right.

What surprised me about the Welsh vote (but not astonished me) was the closer alliance with what is ostensibly an English political movement. The rise of UKIP in the South of Wales (the most populous part) for instance.



The word is "recurrent", unless you're recycling currants, I suppose. Yes, I'm disgusted with you, and I've explained why.

uhuh

Cullion
1st July 16, 08:07 AM
Stuff I've read suggests that UKIP popularity in Wales is about ppl wanting the dwindling supply of industrial employment to be protected from foreign competition.

Syntactical Disruptorize
1st July 16, 08:10 AM
Stuff I've read suggests that UKIP popularity in Wales is about ppl wanting the dwindling supply of industrial employment to be protected from foreign competition.
Yes, protectionism has an appeal to people who feel they're being outsourced by elites who mock them.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
1st July 16, 08:19 AM
Stuff I've read suggests that UKIP popularity in Wales is about ppl wanting the dwindling supply of industrial employment to be protected from foreign competition.

Yeah I can see that.

Adouglasmhor
2nd July 16, 02:21 AM
On a brighter note, EHIC still covers you in Europe as it's not just an EEC program.

MerkinMuffly
3rd July 16, 11:04 AM
http://m.imgur.com/gallery/EF4UWro

Syntactical Disruptorize
3rd July 16, 09:27 PM
No I have spent a lot of time engaging with people on the otherside of the debate
It doesn't show and you're not credible.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
4th July 16, 02:23 AM
Ahh yes another one of your tropes "you've no credibility", very imaginative.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
4th July 16, 09:38 AM
Stuff I've read suggests that UKIP popularity in Wales is about ppl wanting the dwindling supply of industrial employment to be protected from foreign competition.

On that note...

Why we voted leave: voices from northern England. (https://vimeo.com/172932182)

Syntactical Disruptorize
4th July 16, 10:56 AM
Ahh yes another one of your tropes "you've no credibility", very imaginative.
It's not a "trope" in the sense of being figurative language. I do not believe your word. I think you take positions of tactical convenience, shade the truth, fudge the facts, and lie. Cullion already caught you out on the "expert" testimony you provided. Why should I trust you?

You're not as clever as you think you are when you pull tricks like that. Don't act surprised when you lose credibility as a result.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
4th July 16, 11:53 AM
uhuh

Syntactical Disruptorize
5th July 16, 07:23 AM
Speaking of tropes...

I wonder if it's true that everything you accuse others of doing is something you do yourself.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
5th July 16, 08:38 AM
This, of course, only applies to you... (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection)

NoBowie
5th July 16, 10:06 AM
Speaking of tropes...

I wonder if it's true that everything you accuse others of doing is something you do yourself.

NO! I only tried it that one time, and my balls didn't touch his, so it doesn't count.

Syntactical Disruptorize
5th July 16, 02:09 PM
This, of course, only applies to you... (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Psychological_projection)
Sorry, you're the one with the record of deceptive bullshit on Sociocide. Between you, Doofa, and resolve, there's not much to choose among.

Syntactical Disruptorize
5th July 16, 02:09 PM
NO! I only tried it that one time, and my balls didn't touch his, so it doesn't count.

Did you make eye contact?

Feryk
5th July 16, 02:27 PM
Speaking of tropes...

I wonder if it's true that everything you accuse others of doing is something you do yourself.

Then I accuse all of you of being damn sexy!

NoBowie
5th July 16, 02:29 PM
Did you make eye contact?

Well, on the dance floor beforehand. But not during.

Feryk
5th July 16, 02:31 PM
Well, on the dance floor beforehand. But not during.

He couldn't, what with all the weeping and sobbing going on.

Syntactical Disruptorize
5th July 16, 02:39 PM
Well, on the dance floor beforehand. But not during.

Marginal. I'll refer it to Dan Savage.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
5th July 16, 02:41 PM
Sorry, you're the one with the record of deceptive bullshit on Sociocide. Between you, Doofa, and resolve, there's not much to choose among.

uhuh

NoBowie
5th July 16, 02:51 PM
He couldn't, what with all the weeping and sobbing going on.

Excuse me? I am a power bottom, thank you very much.

Syntactical Disruptorize
5th July 16, 07:34 PM
uhuh

Can we skip the part where I write a script to reply something to do with tropes every time you post that?

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
6th July 16, 04:30 AM
Yes you can but I'm finding your pat responses tiresome; disgust, credibility, & a need to bracket me into a subjective image of a generic left-wing fan boy.

If you have something more interesting or more insightful to add then yeah I'll respond accordingly, until that time "uhuh" sums up what I think about your posts.

Pie of Hate
6th July 16, 06:34 AM
Excuse me? I am a power bottom, thank you very much.

Change the buttons that say "Top" to "Power Bottom". It won't improve the world but page navigation will be a chuckle.

Feryk
6th July 16, 11:48 AM
Excuse me? I am a power bottom, thank you very much.

Did I say it was YOU doing the weeping and sobbing?

Syntactical Disruptorize
6th July 16, 12:02 PM
They're not pat responses, doc. They're the result of your past actions. Until you show some sign of understanding that and changing your behavior, they're all you're getting from me.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
7th July 16, 08:08 AM
quelle surprise

Syntactical Disruptorize
7th July 16, 09:24 AM
This after proving in the same day that you don't fact check things that are just too goddamned good in your opinion.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
7th July 16, 10:02 AM
uhuh

Syntactical Disruptorize
7th July 16, 10:03 AM
Doc, do you worry that you're becoming unresponsive to opposing viewpoints?

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
7th July 16, 10:04 AM
Dunno whats a 'paint viewpoint'?

Syntactical Disruptorize
7th July 16, 10:21 AM
Dunno whats a 'paint viewpoint'?
Edited already, you point-ducking fuckwit.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
7th July 16, 11:02 AM
Doc, do you worry that you're becoming unresponsive to opposing viewpoints?

No just unresponsive to angry self important narcissists

Syntactical Disruptorize
7th July 16, 11:15 AM
No just unresponsive to angry self important narcissists
Like the ones who think they're too important to care about facts and truthfulness, and expect others to keep finding them credible after they evade, lie, and fuck up repeatedly?

Yeah, those people suck.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
7th July 16, 11:19 AM
Oh no that post on resolves thread wasnt fact checked, surely that must mean you have a real deep understanding of my character!!

Get a grip.

Syntactical Disruptorize
7th July 16, 11:25 AM
You know that's far from the only example of your bullshit. Look at Cullion's expose of your disinterested expert.

You are about as honest as resolve.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
7th July 16, 11:29 AM
I dont have a problem with the guy, Cullion does.

NoBowie
7th July 16, 11:31 AM
http://i.imgur.com/KuH1muo.gif

Syntactical Disruptorize
7th July 16, 11:33 AM
It's not a question of a personal problem with the guy, you lying sack of shit. It's a question of him being disinterested and an expert vs. Interested and not a relevant subject matter expert.

NoBowie
7th July 16, 04:56 PM
SOCCER SOCCER SOCCER!!!!

http://i.imgur.com/wU58czI.gif

Feryk
7th July 16, 05:07 PM
That dude has skillz.

NoBowie
7th July 16, 06:09 PM
Germany lost. : (

Feryk
8th July 16, 11:33 AM
Portugal is in the final. One of my best friends is Portuguese. Guess where I'm going to be this weekend?

NoBowie
8th July 16, 12:27 PM
Guess where I'm going to be this weekend?

Bare ass up, face down on the bar in your favorite local grizzly club?

Syntactical Disruptorize
8th July 16, 01:38 PM
Bear ass up, face down on the bar in your favorite local grizzly club?
Fixed.

Feryk
8th July 16, 03:05 PM
Wow. Um, no. I'm going to be at his place watching the game.

NoBowie
8th July 16, 03:59 PM
Wow. Um, no. I'm going to be at his place watching the game.

HKLnmMacEB4

Feryk
8th July 16, 04:35 PM
http://media.zuza.com/c/0/c00454c5-e70f-497c-a3cb-84c1b5fd595e/B821650629Z.1_20140627110525_000_GLV197NI4.4_Conte nt.jpg

More like this, than that.

Pie of Hate
13th July 16, 06:16 AM
https://scontent-amt2-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/13592831_750872809943_9133465664455833826_n.jpg?oh =7c2c4a8e67a1e6d21f12f862d8ec03f9&oe=57F23E2C

Feryk
18th July 16, 10:05 AM
So...a coup in Turkey, a bombing in Nice, and a shooting in Louisiana...and no one cares about your new PM.

Interesting.

Syntactical Disruptorize
18th July 16, 11:41 AM
Life goes on. And so does Death.

Pie of Hate
19th July 16, 04:36 AM
That's the thing with un-elected leaders. They prefer you to be focused on other things; by force if necessary.

Syntactical Disruptorize
19th August 16, 10:31 AM
Even the Guardian now admits: UK unemployment falls after Brexit. (http://order-order.com/2016/08/17/unemployment-falls-brexit/)

Of course, Brexit's opponents didn't really care about actual workers. Their predictions of doom were meant to scare people they regarded as inferiors and yahoos, and their monocles dropped when they saw it didn't work. When you lie enough times, you lose credibility. I wonder if they'll learn their lesson.

Feryk
19th August 16, 02:49 PM
Why would they? Their fear mongering cost them nothing. If anything, next time they will pour it on even more.

Syntactical Disruptorize
19th August 16, 05:57 PM
Why would they? Their fear mongering cost them nothing. If anything, next time they will pour it on even more.
I think the people just learned that they can ignore those elites and the consequences can be quite positive. You're probably right about the likely reaction of the elites, but not because it costs them nothing. Rather, they will do the same thing because they don't understand what they just lost.

Feryk
22nd August 16, 10:51 AM
There has always been a social contract of sorts. Recent election results around the world are showing that the ruling class are getting it wrong, and the proletariat for lack of a better word, are reacting.

NoBowie
26th August 16, 01:09 PM
Yeah. The real problem is candy crush requests. That is what the people care about.

http://i.imgur.com/ZkKpAyh.jpg

Syntactical Disruptorize
26th August 16, 01:11 PM
The IRA has shifted its concerns quite a bit.

MerkinMuffly
26th August 16, 01:22 PM
Too bad she wasn't suffocated by a giant confection for her crimes.

MerkinMuffly
26th August 16, 01:39 PM
Young Belfast woman buried under seven tons of Lucky Charms for repeatedly sending out Candy Crush game requests

Cullion
1st September 16, 02:28 AM
The way things are going with the EU's treatment of Apple etc.. I think submitting article 50 and getting some deals with big countries like India, Canada and Australia might see our economy boom in a way it hasn't for decades. There are still difficult negotiations to have, but I'm very positive about my vote.

Cullion
2nd September 16, 02:40 PM
http://www.wsj.com/articles/has-u-k-gone-from-brexit-gloom-to-boom-1472733519

We should stop worrying about the European single market and focus on deals with the dynamic, creative economies like America and honour our long-standing cultural ties with the commonwealth. As long as our immigration policy is reasonably relaxed and meritocratic so it doesn't cause undue paperwork for companies wanting to hire skilled people like software engineers, medical staff, finance professionals then we're going to be okay.

Feryk
2nd September 16, 03:51 PM
The way things are going with the EU's treatment of Apple etc.. I think submitting article 50 and getting some deals with big countries like India, Canada and Australia might see our economy boom in a way it hasn't for decades. There are still difficult negotiations to have, but I'm very positive about my vote.

Just tell us where you want the oil, and we'll send it right over. We have lots.

Cullion
2nd September 16, 04:59 PM
We still have some North Sea oil. From my reading the main things you have that we need are wheat, timber and minerals.

Syntactical Disruptorize
2nd September 16, 05:00 PM
Young Belfast woman buried under seven tons of Lucky Charms for repeatedly sending out Candy Crush game requests

How tragically malicious.

MerkinMuffly
2nd September 16, 08:29 PM
Nice.

Harpy
3rd September 16, 12:47 AM
You both know it was a fake story right?

MerkinMuffly
3rd September 16, 12:58 AM
The only thought I gave it was the alternative headline.

Syntactical Disruptorize
3rd September 16, 09:15 AM
You both know it was a fake story right?

Who the fuck cares?

NoBowie
13th October 16, 03:06 PM
News that a major British supermarket will no longer be stocking Marmite following Brexit has sparked outrage across the U.K.

http://time.com/4529747/marmite-shortage-tesco-brexit/

Cullion
14th October 16, 03:00 AM
The dispute is already over. Unilever (the supplier) backed down.

Adouglasmhor
15th October 16, 03:07 PM
It was pot noodles not marmite that would have brought the country to a standstill anyway.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
19th October 16, 06:43 AM
3kPOdSFKD-Q

NoBowie
19th October 16, 09:26 AM
Do you think she would push me up against the wall, pull down my pants, and peg me while whispering "C'mon bad boy, isn't entering sooo much better than exiting?"


3kPOdSFKD-Q

Cullion
19th October 16, 06:16 PM
3kPOdSFKD-Q

And yet, Iceland doesn't even want to join the EU.

Iceland did a trade deal with China in 2013 where China dropped tariffs on most goods immediately and left a waiting period of 5 years for a few. Japan isn't a member of any regional block or political union, and it's a comparable economy to the UK.

I wonder which regional trading block she thinks her home country, New Zealand, should cede legal jurisdiction to ?

Here is a more detailed analysis of what the Swiss feel they got out of the deal with China from the London School of Economics. This was written over a year before the referendum.

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2015/05/05/what-the-eu-could-learn-from-switzerlands-free-trade-agreement-with-china/

Sorry, but we already had the vote. The BBC is just rolling around in its own shit being miserable now because it hurts so much to have the unpopularity of their opinions spelled out in black and white.

Syntactical Disruptorize
19th October 16, 09:42 PM
Max is just rolling around in his own shit being miserable now because it hurts so much to have the unpopularity of his opinions spelled out in black and white.
Not exactly fixed, but expanded upon.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
20th October 16, 08:02 AM
Here is a more detailed analysis of what the Swiss feel they got out of the deal with China from the London School of Economics. This was written over a year before the referendum.

Only took 5 years as well.

Cullion
20th October 16, 02:40 PM
You cannot trust social science academics about anything.

NoBowie
20th October 16, 03:17 PM
You cannot trust social science academics about anything.

But... but... he told me I was pretty. He told me I could be a star!

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
20th October 16, 03:24 PM
You cannot trust social science academics about anything.

That was from your "detailed analysis of what the Swiss feel they got"

Cullion
20th October 16, 04:49 PM
That was from your "detailed analysis of what the Swiss feel they got"

I wasn't talking about that.

Syntactical Disruptorize
23rd October 16, 10:42 AM
Oh, can it, Max. You lost.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
28th October 16, 05:02 AM
5 years for the Switz to sort a deal with China.

Now Australia, a potentially large trading partner, pulling out of talks. Face it time is ticking.

NoBowie
28th October 16, 12:19 PM
5 years for the Switz to sort a deal with China.

Now Australia, a potentially large trading partner, pulling out of talks. Face it time is ticking.

http://i.imgur.com/PY6eFKD.gif

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
3rd November 16, 05:48 AM
Parliament must vote on whether the UK can start the process of leaving the European Union, the High Court has ruled.

This means the government cannot trigger Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty - beginning formal discussions with the EU - on their own.

Theresa May says the referendum - and existing ministerial powers - mean MPs do not need to vote, but campaigners called this unconstitutional.

The government is appealing.

Government loses Article 50 court fight (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-37857785?SThisFB)

Pie of Hate
3rd November 16, 06:50 AM
Supreme Dictator May will soon find a way to circumvent that pesky ruling.

Cullion
3rd November 16, 06:49 PM
they'll appeal in December, then if that fails they'll to decide whether to just ask the current parliament to vote and see if the majority of MPs want to risk going against their constituents. if the govt. loses that vote it could force a general election. i can't remember if they can still call a general election early or not. an early enough general election would prob see a much larger tory majority.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
4th November 16, 08:10 AM
An early election can be called if there is a vote of no confidence OR if two third of MP'S agree to an early election.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
2nd February 17, 08:03 AM
What are your thoughts on this Cullionz? (https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/video/2017/feb/02/if-eastern-europeans-leave-britain-after-brexit-what-happens-video?CMP=fb_cif)

Cullion
13th February 17, 04:58 AM
I don't expect there to be any forced repatriations and I've just returned from a recruiting trip in Eastern Europe that tells me the UK is still seen as a place of opportunity, at least for the skilled.

I expect the liberal free-trader Johnson/Hannan side of the Tory party to win this debate and keep the UK open to immigration under relatively liberal terms because

a) it's much more pragmatic for the economy. we have very low unemployment at the moment
b) even hard-nosed older conservatives don't like being openly associated with racism these days.

Syntactical Disruptorize
16th April 17, 08:09 PM
This (https://dominiccummings.wordpress.com/2017/01/09/on-the-referendum-21-branching-histories-of-the-2016-referendum-and-the-frogs-before-the-storm-2/) is the best analysis I've seen of why Leave won, often despite the efforts of its self-described proponents. As with many large events, the victory went to those who made the fewest and least disastrous mistakes.

Üser Friendly
23rd April 17, 04:38 AM
it's pretty embarrassing to be English right now

Harpy
23rd April 17, 04:56 AM
Pippa's wedding will make it better.

NoBowie
23rd April 17, 09:42 AM
Pippa's wedding will make it better.

No! She was supposed to remain unobtainable by any mortal man.

Cullion
23rd April 17, 12:59 PM
it's pretty embarrassing to be English right now

'Progressive' politics has always been about self-loathing. Nothing has changed for you.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
24th April 17, 09:26 AM
fXjk5AcPmpE

Üser Friendly
24th April 17, 03:40 PM
'Progressive' politics has always been about self-loathing. Nothing has changed for you.

Has it? Perhaps you could cite some examples?

Anyway, how did you vote then Cullion?

Üser Friendly
24th April 17, 03:45 PM
fXjk5AcPmpE

Why do so many folk seem to have such a problem with all the elections?

"Oh God!, I have to go to a polling station once a year. It's a diabolical liberty"

Cullion
25th April 17, 04:28 AM
Has it? Perhaps you could cite some examples?

Anyway, how did you vote then Cullion?

I voted to leave and I am still happy with my choice.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
28th April 17, 07:46 AM
https://scontent-lht6-1.xx.fbcdn.net/v/t1.0-9/16114079_735230126631440_761958219965557026_n.jpg? oh=f17623b70dab37f5e31c40902c1fd18a&oe=5994948B