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View Full Version : Uncle Lebell predicts the future of Europe.



Lebell
2nd November 11, 08:15 AM
I believe 90% of the media is wrong about what is going on in Europe at the moment.
This 'crisis' is not about the euro, or failing economies, it is merely used as a reason to gain power.

Europe can not afford to fail.
It needs to form one zone, with one currency....and more importantly:one undivided economical policy.

According to who?
According to Germany and France.

I suspect that the crisis was unexpected but is now used to gain firm control over our weaker European brothers such as Greece, Spain, Portugal, and most importantly..Italy.

This whole drama about Greece is the last reharsal for dealing with Italy.
The southern countries always had this 'laissez faire' folkloristic nonchalant attitude about them, and we all thought that was cute, but in this era there's hard cash to be made or our wealth will dissapear.

The northern countries realise this and are now forcing the southern governments to do things their way, by whatever means it takes.

The main antagonist of any importance is Italy with its relative big economy.
Greece at this moment is being used as testing grounds.

Greece has roughly got three viable options:

-get out of the eurozone, re-implement the drachme and compete in it's own currency on the free market. (good luck with that).

-eat shit from the EU and get back in line.(most likely to happen)

-turn towards China for help.(roughly option one but more dramatic)


China is at Europe's doorsteps and offered to help out Greece and others in exchange of lease contracts for use of European harbours, and other assets.

The German-Franco alliance can't have that.

Eventually they will sweeten the Greeks with roughly a same deal like the Chinese offered them: reform and help with their debts in exchange for certain (crucial) Greek assets.
On paper Greek remains its sovereinity but that's just outward appearance.

Once this is done over the course of 2012 (the Greek elite knows this, and thus they are delaying like hell, this time using a referendum, taking a huge gamble) they focus of attention will move like the eye of Sauron towards Italy.

Berlusconi is already declining in power (the italian elite realises something's gotta give or they'll be bitches like the greeks) and it remains to be seen how Italy is going to adept to their new role as a European province.

Because a European province they will become.
Like all the other minor nations.

Between now and two to three years a European president will be instituted, perhaps preceeded by a 'emergency commision' or whatever term they will invent for it.
This head of power will be the puppet of the German-Franco alliance.

You can see signs and hints towards this attitude change in several European projects: there's lobbying going on for a federal european police force (for example, the maffia costs the italian, and later on the european economy, millions if not billions on a yearly basis, what would work better than an european taskforce to root them out once and for all?), the federal police force is the logical step to assimilation of one european system.

There's talk about a supercommison that controls the ECB (european central bank) AND the combined, unified European economical policy.

What is really going on right now is not so much ABOUT the future of the euro, it is more about a coupe d'etat USING the future of the euro, by a German-Franco alliance to turn the European Union into the private playground of these two local powers where all other memberstates will stfu and do whatever the hell they say, lead by one leader.

The trajectory to install one leadership over Europe's wealh and economical power would normally take roughly 2 decades from this point, but now the crisis has presented the powerhungry with an opportunity to speed things up dramatically, and they are taking enormous risks.

Once this process has been established it's just a matter of time before we got that one special leader again as history has showed so many times already in Europe.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
2nd November 11, 08:49 AM
Lebellah for Euro-God-Emperor!!!!!!!

Lebell
2nd November 11, 09:36 AM
somehow i think it's unlikely that I'll become that type of leader, by then I'll be in my late 50ies.
or dead.
probably dead.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
2nd November 11, 09:53 AM
We can only hope.

Cullion
2nd November 11, 10:33 AM
China's already warned the EU not to expect them to bail them out.

Greece being out of the Euro using the drachma would be of great help to them. I don't know why you think it's a bad idea.

Robot Jesus
2nd November 11, 10:46 AM
how is their agricultural infrastructure? if it's sound then it might not be to horrible to be a Greek.

Lebell
2nd November 11, 11:16 AM
China's already warned the EU not to expect them to bail them out.

Greece being out of the Euro using the drachma would be of great help to them. I don't know why you think it's a bad idea.

Because China IS willing to bail certain countries out, under a nice set of conditions.
They are not willing to bail out just because.
They want something more than just an interest to the loans.

Lebell
2nd November 11, 11:19 AM
how is their agricultural infrastructure? if it's sound then it might not be to horrible to be a Greek.

AS far as I know Greece is a pretty shitty country economically seen.
Loads of em lived off of tourism, I think that even without the euro and re-implementation of the drachme, life will get much much simpeler for them.

If Greece goes out, then the chance of the eurozone imploding is more and more probable, which means richer countries will get fucked big time, including my own.

When that happens also nations such as the UK and USA will feel the consequences on their already troubled economies.

KO'd N DOA
2nd November 11, 12:17 PM
Why doesn't Turkey put in to help bail Greece out. They have historical references to build off of, and would strengthen their assention to EU in 2013?

elipson
2nd November 11, 04:13 PM
China's already warned the EU not to expect them to bail them out.

Greece being out of the Euro using the drachma would be of great help to them. I don't know why you think it's a bad idea.

Out of polite curiousity, do you think a reversion to the Drachma would trigger a run on the banks in Greece?

In particular any foreign holdings or investments would be removed as investors fear that all their euros would be converted to Drachmas, which would likely drop like a stone as soon as it was legal to trade that currency?

I sure as hell wouldn't want my Euros to be converted to Drachmas when the music stops.

Cullion
2nd November 11, 04:22 PM
You wouldn't have to convert all those holdings into Drachmas, just the government bonds and other liabilities. Greek public employees would then be paid in drachmas, Greek taxes would be collected in drachmas, etc.. But this doesn't mean that every bank account in Greece would need to suddenly be converted to drachmas.

Lebell: Of course the greek tourist industry gets a boost the minute they switch to devalued drachmas... it's just they won't be getting paid in a currency they can use to buy those nice German cars with.

Lollius Urbicus
2nd November 11, 04:51 PM
a currency they can use to buy those nice German cars with.
Of which there are more than there are tax payers who earn over €50,000.


Which city tops the global list of per capita ownership of Porsche Cayennes? It’s arguably a 100,000 euro question, the starting price for Porsche’s pricey SUV.

London, New York or Larisa? Don’t laugh, but the correct answer is the third.


Larisa, which has about 250,000 inhabitants, is the capital of the agricultural region of Thessaly in central Greece.


“The proliferation of Cayennes is a curiosity, given that farming is not a flourishing sector in Greece, where agricultural output generates a mere 3.2 percent of GNP in 2009 (down from 6.65 percent in 2000) and transfers and subsidies from the European Commission provide roughly half of the nation’s agricultural income,” Polemarchakis’ wrote, in a recent article that appeared in the Bulletin of the Economics Research Institute of the University of Warwick, where he teaches economics.


“A couple of years ago, there were more Cayennes circulating in Greece than individuals who declared and paid taxes on an annual income of more than 50,000 euros,” he pointed out.
http://www.athensnews.gr/portal/9/49503

elipson
2nd November 11, 07:30 PM
What about shares in greek companies? Or greek real estate?

And wouldn't the conversion of government bonds to Drachmas create the same kind of problem, with people trying to ditch them as euros before they become devaluated drachmas?

Lebell
3rd November 11, 06:15 AM
Lebell: Of course the greek tourist industry gets a boost the minute they switch to devalued drachmas... it's just they won't be getting paid in a currency they can use to buy those nice German cars with.

I understand that, to convert back to drachme's would result into a sorta weird isolationism.
as far as i can tell, i mean im no economist.
so far everything's going as i expected: the greek pm is under heavy fire as we speak, his own ministers of cabinet are ripping him a new one about his plan to hold a referendum.

EU holds back the first 8 billion euros until this is solved.

AAAAAA
3rd November 11, 08:59 PM
I think you're overshooting a little, as surely Germany and France are making their move, but not in such a political way. It's more about the money. Italy can and will be bought off for peanuts, euro surviving or not. In that sense, yes, a province, but not in the nice tidy way you describe.

The thing you're definitely wrong about is the impact of mafia on the economy, which is thought to be around 100 billions euros (2007 report), and it's all black money that's been injected in the rest of Europe, especially Germany, for many years. The problem is much bigger than Italy, as the Euro opened a world of opportunities for mafia investments.

The supposed "relaxed" lifestyle is part of the media narrative. Go look at the tax rate for employees in Italy. A part of the country has been partying for years, stealing and distributing wealth to lobby for power, and it's worked like a charm. That part is closely tied to all the black mafia money.
It's an inextricable mess and it's going to infect all of Europe. Italy is often at the forefront of history. What is mafia if not completely unregulated capitalism? The days of Godfathers are long over.

Lebell
4th November 11, 07:18 AM
germany will come with men to sort out this problem.
i will be among them.

AAAAAA
4th November 11, 08:24 AM
If we could hand over some parts of the country to ze Germans, some things would definitely change for the better.

But never underestimate the power of money. It works on Germans too.

Lebell
4th November 11, 08:45 AM
sure it does.
but its probably hard for italian cowards to imagine: you can just arrest maffie members put em against the wall and be done with em, they are not superhuman.
under teutonic rule these spaghettimunchers would get crushed within a month.

AAAAAA
4th November 11, 08:53 AM
Naif. It's like, you can just arrest the terrorists and be done with it. Or, let's bomb Mafia.
By the way you reason, you'd be a forefront mafioso were you born in those places, or you'd have emigrated early enough.

The government is corrupt, the civil society is corrupt. There needs to be a wise external ruler that won't be corrupted, and then change the whole culture of a large part of people who only saw the State as a hassle, always asking and never giving.
Problem is, it has been tried (sort of) and still didn't work.

Lebell
4th November 11, 10:00 AM
Naif. It's like, you can just arrest the terrorists and be done with it. Or, let's bomb Mafia.
By the way you reason, you'd be a forefront mafioso were you born in those places, or you'd have emigrated early enough.

The government is corrupt, the civil society is corrupt. There needs to be a wise external ruler that won't be corrupted, and then change the whole culture of a large part of people who only saw the State as a hassle, always asking and never giving.
Problem is, it has been tried (sort of) and still didn't work.

you just wait til uncle Lebell and his sonderkommando will come to town.
you skin a couple alive and hang em by their balls.

after repeating this for a couple of months they'll beg to negotiate.

Cullion
4th November 11, 12:53 PM
What about shares in greek companies?

It depends on which exchange you are trading those shares.



Or greek real estate?

That is by arrangement between buyer and seller. If somebody in London wants to sell you a house for a price quoted in Euros, they can.



And wouldn't the conversion of government bonds to Drachmas create the same kind of problem, with people trying to ditch them as euros before they become devaluated drachmas?

Yes, but thanks to futures markets an awful lot of this risk is already priced in.

jkdbuck76
4th November 11, 01:21 PM
WWSD?

(What Would Socrates Do?)

Vieux Normand
4th November 11, 01:28 PM
WWSD?

(What Would Socrates Do?)

He'd obediently kill himself...just because somebody told him to.

Ajamil
4th November 11, 01:28 PM
WWSD?

(What Would Socrates Do?)Bottoms up?

jkdbuck76
4th November 11, 01:28 PM
Drink the old Greek Kool Aid. I forgot about that.

Adouglasmhor
4th November 11, 07:01 PM
germany will come with men to sort out this problem.
i will be among them.

Not just men then?

Vieux Normand
5th November 11, 09:38 AM
germany will come with men to sort out this problem.
i will be among them.

Just what Yurp needs: a dark-eyed brown-hair who can't tell 'Deutsch' from 'dutch'.

Lebell
5th November 11, 11:58 AM
imma teach those spaghettimonsters to march to the proper drum.
the teutonic drum.

resolve
5th November 11, 01:52 PM
http://www.hlitgroup.org/extras/HitlerYouth/HitlerYouth_files/HitlerYouthPoster.jpg

Unfortunately couldn't find the one of the chubby hitler youth kid. All I got for "fat hitler youth drummer" was pictures of Glenn Beck and Pope Benedict 0_o.

Dr. Socially Liberal Fiscally Conservative Vermin
7th November 11, 05:57 AM
[img] All I got for "fat hitler youth drummer" was pictures of Glenn Beck and Pope Benedict 0_o.

LOL!