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Arhetton
15th October 09, 07:57 PM
is it just me or is the whole world acting like shits just coming up roses all over again?

My friend who is a broker and we chat about the stockmarket pretty regularly, sent me a message the other day saying something along the lines of:

the DOW just went OVER 10,000! OMGWTF101LOLKTHXBYE.

Its like the second largest fuckup since the great depression and apparently its all good 12 months later?

I don't get it.

Seems a bit fucking suss to me.

In our local papers, suddenly the whole world is crying poor when the reserve bank raised interest rates by 0.25% - the first rate rise since like 16 consecutive falls in a row, and everyone is having a fat whinge about it.

Sorry to shit all over the worlds celebration fire but I don't think this crisis is exactly over.

And look at these fuckers:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8308816.stm

Hm.

SFGOON
15th October 09, 08:02 PM
Meh.

I've always maintained that this whole crisis could be solved with the razing of Detroit, Milwaukee and St. Louis. Cincinnati is on thin fucking ice.

Also, sell GM to China.

Arhetton
15th October 09, 08:04 PM
I swear if I hear 'green shoots' one more fucking time

HappyOldGuy
15th October 09, 08:05 PM
Stocks are always a guess on where investors think the economy is going.

And by the economy, they mean their ability to make money on the market.

Which means that a) they go up before joe mainstreet feels any recovery, and b) they can go up even if joe mainstreet is sucking people off for enough money to buy a cup of coffee.

Arhetton
15th October 09, 08:09 PM
http://www.freewebs.com/majinalex/majin_vegeta22.jpg

HIS DOW IS OVER 10,000!!!!!

elipson
15th October 09, 08:17 PM
I noticed that too actually. I'm not entirely sure why the dow is so high when US unemployment is still near 10%.

EuropIan
15th October 09, 08:19 PM
http://www.freewebs.com/majinalex/majin_vegeta22.jpg

HIS DOW IS OVER 10,000!!!!!
http://bulk.destructoid.com/ul/user/2/25509-114541-180pxWhat9000jpg-468x.jpg

wHAT!? 10,000!?!?!

jubei33
15th October 09, 08:23 PM
kind of homoerotic.

Arhetton
15th October 09, 08:27 PM
haha it should be used to report all economic statistics!

in all seriousness though, I just found this thing called the U6 from the department of labor:

http://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t12.htm

which includes the underemployed (those who want a full time job but can't find one), and its even higher than the reported unemployment figures, at 17%

EuropIan
15th October 09, 08:28 PM
kind of homoerotic.
Kind of?

Arhetton
15th October 09, 08:29 PM
all that time I thought I was enjoying some bad ass anime.

turns out i'd just caught the gay.

Hedley LaMarr
15th October 09, 08:42 PM
Meh.

I've always maintained that this whole crisis could be solved with the razing of Detroit, Milwaukee and St. Louis. Cincinnati is on thin fucking ice.

Also, sell GM to China.
I was about to write a scathing page-long reply as to why Milwaukee is great...

But on the whole, I've got to agree...economically speaking, it's a shit hole.

Dark Helmet
15th October 09, 08:55 PM
is it just me or is the whole world acting like shits just coming up roses all over again?

My friend who is a broker and we chat about the stockmarket pretty regularly, sent me a message the other day saying something along the lines of:

the DOW just went OVER 10,000! OMGWTF101LOLKTHXBYE.

Its like the second largest fuckup since the great depression and apparently its all good 12 months later?

I don't get it.

Seems a bit fucking suss to me.

In our local papers, suddenly the whole world is crying poor when the reserve bank raised interest rates by 0.25% - the first rate rise since like 16 consecutive falls in a row, and everyone is having a fat whinge about it.

Sorry to shit all over the worlds celebration fire but I don't think this crisis is exactly over.

And look at these fuckers:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8308816.stm

Hm.

It is interesting.

A friend of mine explained that the Sub-primes Mortgage crisis isn't even over. There's an entirely different Business mortgages, that in this bad economy, are going to start defaulting soon.

Arhetton
15th October 09, 09:33 PM
^ and there are 4x the amount as relating to CDO's that started this whole mess.

Apparently theres something like 600 trillion in derivatives being traded out there in the lumineferous ether of high finance.

I spent most of last year reading about that stuff every spare chance that I got.

I just did some quick revision on wiki, I think the ones we're talking about are credit default swaps (CDS's).

Yeah they are gonna fuck us hard.

Harpy
15th October 09, 10:33 PM
I can't wait to cash in on the next crash. Looking for a country retreat.

Arhetton
16th October 09, 12:16 AM
^ the irony.

Harpy
16th October 09, 12:25 AM
And the ecstasy.

Arhetton
16th October 09, 12:42 AM
I'm finding commentary on the australian economy fucking painful, to say the least.

Especially when it comes to real estate.

Did you see that article about the 'struggling battlers' living in coogee with 800,000 debt, two investment properties (one which they sold at a loss) having a winge about a rise in the % rate from 3% to 3.25%... fucking WTF. I hope the rates go up to 8% and crush them mercilessly.

Harpy
16th October 09, 12:46 AM
Yes I did and I actually agree with you.

I think something as basic as one's superannuation investment history over the last few years should be a blunt reminder to the public that all is not well.

Not sure if anyone is shocked at how our dollar has 'bounced back' and the implications of that.

Anyway, as an aside...what do you think about the NAB's cutting of account fees?

Arhetton
16th October 09, 12:57 AM
could be a worm on a hook but honestly its probably just competition with the other big 3 for market pie.

mortgages are a gravy train for the banks of this country, and the higher the property prices the sweeter the gravy.

I'm sure those account fees could really add up over the life of a mortgage, but personally at the moment its mainly just an intellectual exercise and I'm only ever interested in the interest rates and the implications for the kind of income I would need with a partner or as a sole provider to buy a place.

Whenever my friends are talking about buying I whip out an amortization schedule and say

http://www.flashpointsocialmedia.com/Area51/Orion/Images/o_rly.jpg

Arhetton
16th October 09, 01:27 AM
also...

wall street!

http://static.open.salon.com/files/rabblerabble1251158120.jpg

rabble rabble rabble!

socratic
16th October 09, 03:57 AM
Australian economics are 6 different kinds of wacky. We're still living in a pretty epic housing bubble and heaps of businesses simply said "Lol, fuck yo recession nigga" and kept making cash hand over fist.

Cullion
17th October 09, 08:46 AM
Stocks are always a guess on where investors think the economy is going.

And by the economy, they mean their ability to make money on the market.

Which means that a) they go up before joe mainstreet feels any recovery, and b) they can go up even if joe mainstreet is sucking people off for enough money to buy a cup of coffee.

They also go up when central banks pump money into them when the economic fundamentals aren't improving. The sign this is happening is usually that the price-earning ratio stretches. I incorrectly expected this to pop in September, but I still expect it to pop.

There's still a lot of bad debt around, the FDIC is in the red, the UK's public finances are in an appalling state. There's still a lot of stuff to be liquidated.

Cullion
17th October 09, 08:53 AM
Australian economics are 6 different kinds of wacky. We're still living in a pretty epic housing bubble and heaps of businesses simply said "Lol, fuck yo recession nigga" and kept making cash hand over fist.

I expect Australia to be one of the countries that weathers all this better than most, but what you've just described is the classic preceding indicator of a massive crash.

HappyOldGuy
17th October 09, 12:43 PM
They also go up when central banks pump money into them when the economic fundamentals aren't improving. The sign this is happening is usually that the price-earning ratio stretches. I incorrectly expected this to pop in September, but I still expect it to pop.

There's still a lot of bad debt around, the FDIC is in the red, the UK's public finances are in an appalling state. There's still a lot of stuff to be liquidated.
I don't think you have enough faith in the strength of faith. The market is up because the financial sector is almost fully recovered. And the financial sector is recovered because the synthetic derivatives printing press is back in operation. The money supply from the national banks is almost irrelevant as long as the investment banks can print their own.

Cullion
17th October 09, 12:59 PM
I don't think you have enough faith in the strength of faith.

My view is that it can delay and exaggerate, but that fundamentals always matter. I don't believe that the faith being displayed is of the type that is changing the fundamentals themselves in the right direction. We in the anglosphere have developed a sick and fearful faith that we cannot prosper without granting enormous legal favour and public treasure to a parasitic financial sector that caused all the problems in the first place.



The market is up because the financial sector is almost fully recovered. And the financial sector is recovered because the synthetic derivatives printing press is back in operation. The money supply from the national banks is almost irrelevant as long as the investment banks can print their own.

The connection between the financial sector and the real economy has further stressors in the near future (commercial real estate, bad Christmas retail figures etc..) Derivatives are always ultimately wired in to the real economy. It's a big house of cards of bets on the performance of bets, but these chains are all ultimately anchored on things like 'whether or not loan X gets repaid' and 'how much does oil cost now?'

I'm sure more Federal reserve aid to it's stock holders will be available, because that's what the Fed is really for.

In the new year I expect the pound and the dollar to head down sharply as a result of further quantitive easing to prop up the banks after bad Christmas retail figures. I believe the financial sector has basically been engaged in a desperate and parasitic transfer of wealth from the real economy with the help of their friends in government.

We shouldn't be trying to reinflate absurd overvaluation in asset markets like the Dow or real estate prices. We're just transferring wealth to Goldman Sachs and their ilk. It's like a re-run of trickle-down, but much more deceitful, and on a much grander scale.

jubei33
17th October 09, 04:47 PM
I agree: fuck them with a broom handle.