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View Full Version : So apparently the 2nd civil war is coming.



EuropIan
22nd February 09, 05:09 PM
After read this thread (http://www.bullshido.net/forums/showthread.php?t=81477&p=2064777#post2064777) on Bullshido, it made me think about something (also i feel bad about opening such a can o' worms in the armory):

The situation could become bad enough for a militiaist's wet dream to come true.

Also: Fox News (omg I get to shoot Mexicans 0oo000ooh*splurt*)

SbiXTidsoh8



So, what are you talking about, Ian?

Well for one thing, while it is normal for the amount of militias to flare up in times of presidents of the democratic pursuasion, the above average amount of fear coupled with the "Abomination" (read: Obamanation) and with alarmist media doing what they do best, dumb people could do dumb things.

However it's important to note the caveat that all out civil war isn't highly likely, because most people are too indiferent to care. And this could just be fox news grasping at straws as a desperate cry for attention.

In conclusion: Obama better be mighty carefull when stirring the pot

and stock up on ammo. Just in case.

So.. how is your survival shelter coming along?

EuropIan
22nd February 09, 05:19 PM
poll added

Cullion
22nd February 09, 05:28 PM
I don't think there will be civil war in the US over anything Obama does in particular.

I do expect angrier protests against financial institutions that might flare up into serious disorder, as we're seeing in parts of Europe. It depends how high unemployment gets and how threadbare the assistance budget gets for these people. I expect any such problems to be more severe in the UK than in the US. Our economy is going to be hit harder and the Labour government has already been much less popular than the Obama administration for some time.

Civilisation in large part relies on the bulk of the populace having full bellies and reasonably secure shelter. Even seriously politically disaffected people won't generally go beyond peaceful verbal protest because criminal charges and getting your name on a no-fly list like that are seriously disruptive to your ability to earn a living.

I think that stops mattering so much if you've been unemployed for a long time and the welfare budget is so tight that large numbers of people experience problems getting hold of the basics.

Am I preparing for 'trouble' ?

Well, no weapons caches or bunkers. I am being a lot more careful with money, talking the wife into starting a vegetable garden and planning on starting to brew my own beer, just to make unemployment a little more bearable if it comes my way. I've let a couple of my oldest and closest friends who have marginal jobs know that they can sleep at my place for as long as they need if they lose their jobs and get evicted.

WarPhalange
22nd February 09, 05:35 PM
Yeah, people are getting up in arms and ready for blood now, when it's too late.

Nothing will come of it. Like Cullion said, people are afraid of their own consequences to do something so drastic. Especially since these days travel is very important, and it would be pretty easy to shut down airports. I think that would be one of the first things to happen anyway, since people would be too afraid to fly with people from the other half of the country, etc.

The worst thing about this is that even if they did storm the White House, nothing would happen. This isn't up to the government anymore. Bailout or no bailout, bad things are happening and will happen for some time.

And how are you going to storm a corporation? They just disband or go somewhere else. Plus, now you don't have all that shit that you bought from them in the first place.

SFGOON
22nd February 09, 05:35 PM
<facepalm>

EuropIan
22nd February 09, 05:39 PM
<facepalm>
I like the cut of your pokemans, sir.


--------------------------------


Anyways, I first started thinking about this when I saw Rick Santelli do his little "lets have a tea party" rant.. That when I realized. Oh god.. people are that dumb

Cullion
22nd February 09, 05:43 PM
Yeah, people are getting up in arms and ready for blood now, when it's too late.

Nothing will come of it. Like Cullion said, people are afraid of their own consequences to do something so drastic. Especially since these days travel is very important, and it would be pretty easy to shut down airports. I think that would be one of the first things to happen anyway, since people would be too afraid to fly with people from the other half of the country, etc.

The worst thing about this is that even if they did storm the White House, nothing would happen. This isn't up to the government anymore. Bailout or no bailout, bad things are happening and will happen for some time.

I don't picture anybody storming the Whitehouse. I think most people upset about the bailout still see Obama as being on their side even if they come to judge so of what he did as mistakes. WTO protests in Seattle? I picture things like that, but moar and bigger, and aimed at financial institution headquarters.



And how are you going to storm a corporation? They just disband or go somewhere else. Plus, now you don't have all that shit that you bought from them in the first place.

That logic doesn't stop people from trying it in lots of countries. But I don't think Americans will do that. However, I voted for the second option because it shouldn't be discounted completely. It would take one of the following 2 things to happen

i) Total financial collapse of the Federal Government, i.e. an even simillar to what brought the Soviet Union to it's knees (George Soros has been drawing these sorts of parallels lately).

ii) Massively heavy-handed governmental reaction to the types of protests described above which somehow get widely reported with an anti-government slant in mainstream media.

Stick
22nd February 09, 05:57 PM
So I should go down to the gun store across the street and pick up my Mossberg 500 now?

HappyOldGuy
22nd February 09, 05:59 PM
People in most of the country still don't understand what the economic cycle we're in means, although they are starting to. The market and financial stuff is the leading indicator. The unemployment and the real pain comes after as all the money that magically vanished in the financial sector gets sucked out of the "real" economy. We are going to face high inflation and unemployment around 10% for the next several years. So in one sense, I think there is alot more bad news yet to come and there are still too many people expecting a magic bullet.

In another sense, we've seen those economic conditions before. It was called the 80's. And other than the fashion choices, it wasn't that bad. The music was actually pretty good..

Internationally is a whole different ballgame, and that is what the serious folks that talking head bobblehead boy was misquoting were saying. I've said before that I don't see China making it through this without experiencing a hard authoritarian crackdown. The mideast oil regimes are another bunch on the faultline who are going to get hurt badly by the combination of low demand and inflation at a time when they are already teetering on collapse. Mexico is obviously already in crisis, and even though the crisis isn't about economics it doesn't seem to be likely to get better in bad economic times.

So yeah. Meh.

Oh yeah, crime in the 80's kinda sucked, so depending on where you live, arming yourself might not be stupid. But america being what it is, the people who will arm themselves are the people who aren't actually at any real risk.

Cullion
22nd February 09, 06:03 PM
I think this is going to be worse than the 1980s recession by some margin. I think in terms of relative change of standard of living it's going to be worse than the 30s. The credit overhang which has to be liquidated is larger and you're in more debt. The financial institutions which have either collapsed or had to beg for tens of billions in public assistance all survived the 1930s.

jvjim
22nd February 09, 06:18 PM
I think the collapse in other countries is going to be the real problem for the US.

HappyOldGuy
22nd February 09, 06:21 PM
I think this is going to be worse than the 1980s recession by some margin. I think in terms of relative change of standard of living it's going to be worse than the 30s. The credit overhang which has to be liquidated is larger and you're in more debt. The financial institutions which have either collapsed or had to beg for tens of billions in public assistance all survived the 1930s.

For the US, that's batfuck insane. As I've pointed out before, the US great depression was a combination of a financial crisis and the worst environmental disaster in US history. Barring a massive west coast earthquake, nothing mother nature can throw is going to have enough oomph to equal that 1 - 2 punch.

This is going to be worse than the 80's, but there is exactly zero chance of unemployment being anywhere near the levels of the 30's.

Also, the big expansion in debt in recent years was in the financial sector. So huge amounts of it have already been resolved by the collapse of various hedge funds.

Cullion
22nd February 09, 06:23 PM
Your main external economic threat is that Asian countries (especially China) will be wary of lending to you.

The debt deleveraging that's going to occur internally is larger than any you've had to endure before, and you'll be enduring it with a larger military burden to fund and higher household indebtedness.

In the UK the position is substantially worse, but I doubt we have a substantial effect on your economy compared to what happens in the middle east or China.

Cullion
22nd February 09, 06:27 PM
For the US, that's batfuck insane. As I've pointed out before, the US great depression was a combination of a financial crisis and the worst environmental disaster in US history. Barring a massive west coast earthquake, nothing mother nature can throw is going to have enough oomph to equal that 1 - 2 punch.

The financial crisis this time is bigger. You might not have another dustbowl event coming up, but you won't need one. The cost of maintaining your military presence overseas in its current form alone totally dwarfs the economic damage of the drought.



This is going to be worse than the 80's, but there is exactly zero chance of unemployment being anywhere near the levels of the 30's.

The danger now is that the federal government will fend off unemployment with monetary policies which lead to out of control inflation.



Also, the big expansion in debt in recent years was in the financial sector. So huge amounts of it have already been resolved by the collapse of various hedge funds.

No, they really haven't. The size of the credit derivatives market is really something impressive to behold. Your going to pump trillions more into institutions exposed to that market before the damage caused is too obvious and the govt. gives up. At least I hope it gives up. To not give up would require so much new money to be created that, well, let's not think about it.

TM
22nd February 09, 06:54 PM
<facepalm>

Ditto

Wounded Ronin
22nd February 09, 07:01 PM
Ian G. R., you have no idea how cool a militia uprising would be. Did you ever play Damage Incorporated? It was a Marathon-mod FPS game that came out in 1997 by Richard Rouse and it dealt with Full Metal Jacket-inspired chatty Marines who would go on black ops to LOLWTFPWNT militia groups. They'd make snarky jokes while blowing shotgun-toting rural people away and it really was a New Yorker's masturbatory fantasy about revenge on rural grassroots voters, IMO. I wrote a review for it on bullshido.net a number of years ago.

I think I got the last used copy of Damage Incorporated off amazon.com a number of years ago. I must have played it through like 20 times. I beat that thing on the hardest difficulty level a lot.

Quikfeet509
22nd February 09, 07:06 PM
Well, no weapons caches or bunkers. I am being a lot more careful with money, talking the wife into starting a vegetable garden and planning on starting to brew my own beer, just to make unemployment a little more bearable if it comes my way. I've let a couple of my oldest and closest friends who have marginal jobs know that they can sleep at my place for as long as they need if they lose their jobs and get evicted.



Fab website for homebrewing:

http://www.homebrewtalk.com/index.php

Cullion
22nd February 09, 07:10 PM
There's not going to be any militia uprising. There's just going to be unemployment, inflation and people protesting outside banks. The inflation and unemployment could become severe enough to force political transformation, but it's unlikely to take the form of a second revolutionary war or anything like that.

MrBadGuy
22nd February 09, 07:45 PM
People are too lazy to do anything about anything. Though I do suspect we could hire illegal immigrants to have our civil war for us.

elipson
22nd February 09, 08:12 PM
This is going to be worse than the 80's, but there is exactly zero chance of unemployment being anywhere near the levels of the 30's.

Zero chance eh? That might be just a little bit cocky. Lots of things can happen in the future.

HappyOldGuy
22nd February 09, 08:21 PM
Zero chance eh? That might be just a little bit cocky. Lots of things can happen in the future.

No, pretty much just the one. A massive earthquake that levels the entire west coast. That is the only event that could match the scale of the dust bowl. Barring comets and alien invasions of course.

sochin101
22nd February 09, 08:41 PM
I voted comedy option
my pokemans, I choose mudkips (NSFW?)


http://i141.photobucket.com/albums/r72/sochin101/180px-Mudkipchan1.jpg

Sun Wukong
22nd February 09, 10:04 PM
SbiXTidsoh8

This is all just wishful thinking. Sure, the center left black guy is going to cause a civil war, not the far right jack ass that totally ignored the wishes of 2/3rds of the country for 8 years.

God, Glenn Beck is such a brainless twat.

Dark Helmet
22nd February 09, 10:42 PM
Glenn Beck seems to be a tool to every far-right political issue that's on the table.

And his "feeling" that the country will enter into a second civil war is seems to coincide with the end-of-the-world literary jackasses claiming the sky will fall in 2012. Beck is just one of them. There's hundreds of them out there and you will see that in the next 5 years they're going to come out of the woodwork.

MrBadGuy
22nd February 09, 10:56 PM
Glenn Beck seems to be a tool to every far-right political issue that's on the table.

And his "feeling" that the country will enter into a second civil war is seems to coincide with the end-of-the-world literary jackasses claiming the sky will fall in 2012. Beck is just one of them. There's hundreds of them out there and you will see that in the next 5 years they're going to come out of the woodwork.


So people in 2014 are going to be saying "Hey man, the world ended two years ago!"?

Wounded Ronin
22nd February 09, 10:57 PM
C'mon guys, it will be COOL when the militias have to get smacked down.

http://www.paranoidproductions.com/damage/graphics/screen1.jpg

Note the rustic man with the shotgun directly in front of the player's rifle.

Dark Helmet
22nd February 09, 11:21 PM
So people in 2014 are going to be saying "Hey man, the world ended two years ago!"?
NO...I'm saying that these people are selling books and profiting from peoples fears.

Equipoise
22nd February 09, 11:46 PM
I make my own ammunition. =-)

nihilist
23rd February 09, 02:12 AM
You don't need guns to be a pirate.

Scrapper
23rd February 09, 02:14 PM
"Zero chance" is a little too cocky.

I do feel all-out social collapse/unrest/revolution to be unlikely though. Too much apathy out there.

I think crime will spike way up, as municipalities cut police manpower and unemployed people get desperate. For this reason I would recommend the acquisition of firearms and ammunition, but then again...I'm a gun guy.

We will almost certainly ride this economic crisis out fairly well, but what kind of government and economy we have on the other side of it will be the real question. But don't worry about me, tovarisch. I am a good worker!

Cullion
23rd February 09, 02:28 PM
No, pretty much just the one. A massive earthquake that levels the entire west coast. That is the only event that could match the scale of the dust bowl.

The economic burden of recent government spending is already substantially higher than the economic impact of the dustbowl.

Hedley LaMarr
23rd February 09, 03:36 PM
The economic burden of recent government spending is already substantially higher than the economic impact of the dustbowl.
Yes, but the stimulus package has not made a good chunk of the farm land in the US unarable or caused mass migrations of farmers to California. For the economic burden to cause the same amount of devastation that the Dust Bowl did, it would have to cause food prices to inflate to a point that Joe 6 Pack couldn't afford food anymore. Obviously that's possible, but I would hope it doesn't if only so America doesn't go through a rough approximation of the French Revolution.

Cullion
23rd February 09, 03:46 PM
You've already had a good approximation of the French Revolution.

Shawarma
23rd February 09, 03:58 PM
That Beck guy sounds like a real cockgobbler. "We don't know how to grow food like our grandparents did." Dude, the grandparents of most current Americans weren't farmers and lived in cities. What is this Faux Olden Times nostalgia shit and what place does it have in current politics? And what is it with his making shit up as he goes along? "Burst out in tears, this is 1860" my pockmarked ass.

There will be no revolution. This is a Republican masturbatory fantasy caused by massive amounts of butthurt that their guy got assraped in the general election.

Oh, and the blonde lady needs to be shut up insert-with-my-penis-lol joke here.

EuropIan
23rd February 09, 04:07 PM
Glenn Beck is my new supplier of tasty outrage and face palming.


I just thought the audacity of fox news doing the "well these are just simulatiOHMYGOD THE MEXICANS ARE COMING! ALSO OBAMA IS TO BLAME! GET YER' GUNS" was a bit too much for me.

nihilist
23rd February 09, 04:07 PM
A blonde under the couch. How unusual is that?

nihilist
23rd February 09, 04:10 PM
Pretty funny how we weren't out of money when Shrub was mortgaging our future to kill brown people but now all of a sudden when it comes to doing for our own it's Armageddon.

HappyOldGuy
23rd February 09, 04:11 PM
A blonde under the couch. How unusual is that?

I has herpes, must spread before I give to reese again.

Cullion
23rd February 09, 04:15 PM
Pretty funny how we weren't out of money when Shrub was mortgaging our future to kill brown people but now all of a sudden when it comes to doing for our own it's Armageddon.

The problem is you don't get to unspend all the money Bush blew, so the damage will be cumulative.

MEGA JESUS-SAMA
23rd February 09, 04:21 PM
Can I punch him in the dick at least?

EuropIan
23rd February 09, 04:24 PM
Cumulatively?

MEGA JESUS-SAMA
23rd February 09, 04:26 PM
We could charge $10 a punch and use it to fund the recovery.

Cullion
23rd February 09, 04:28 PM
Can I punch him in the dick at least?

No, because part of the tax burden you're carrying includes armed and highly trained bodyguards for life for him, for just this eventuality. :)

MEGA JESUS-SAMA
23rd February 09, 04:32 PM
man fuck this place
how's england?

Cullion
23rd February 09, 04:38 PM
Worse economic problems, worse weather, fewer civil liberties. No Obama-figure to cheer you up on the horizon.

EuropIan
23rd February 09, 04:50 PM
man fuck this place
how's england?
You can come over here and chill, our weather sucks as well though.

MEGA JESUS-SAMA
23rd February 09, 05:16 PM
hows the bud

EuropIan
23rd February 09, 05:20 PM
US Rappers who come over here are generally impressed.

Robot Jesus
24th February 09, 04:59 AM
heathyer drinking culture though?

Craigypooh
24th February 09, 05:08 AM
heathyer drinking culture though?

I'd say maltyer.

EuropIan
24th February 09, 05:11 AM
heathyer drinking culture though?
No


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G. beck is terrified of mexicans

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