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'subsidised international movement of labour is good for the economy. identity politics is more important than whether you have a job or whether the...

and what message is that?

yeah, it is a conspiracy theory. people like you are the reason liberals keep losing elections. you're incapable of looking inwards critically...

they are doing a lot with a little, and with cambridge analytica we do have a direct tie; which shows how much stealth a little gets you. This...

Your treating a borderline 2nd world nation with severely decayed infrastructure as a deus ex machina that gives life to all your conspiracy theories...

published in 97, when the tough on crime trope was so prominent the democratic front runner has had to repeatedly distance himself from his actions...

"Russia should use its special services within the borders of the United States to fuel instability and separatism, for instance, provoke...

I mean the book Putin makes everyone who works for him read; and I was wrong about the title, foundations, not fundamentals. ...

I haven't misinterpreted the graph. They've simply assessed the expected value incorrectly. I predicted the behaviour correctly with simple high...

If that was true you wouldn't have made such a cock up interperating that graph & recognized it as a version of the Gambler's Ruin paradox.

2) obvs

not really. it's all cribbed from media chatter in the sources that register as respectable and erudite to you because of their branding and...

i work mostly from the fundamentals of geo politics.

you're not able to spot misapplication of textbook methods even when they produce glaringly incorrect results, are you ?

you and your newspaper-based imaginary geopolitics.

3) EU and NATO lose members and become a smaller player on the world stage.

I do understand basic statistics, that's why my expected result agrees with the montecarlo simulation, and yours doesn't.

Which would be funnier? 1) have a 'people's vote' referendum just like labour asked for, then Leave win it again 2) have the 2nd referendum,...

and the doomsday clock ticks a little closer to midnight.

I cant help you if you dont understand basic statistics. Also of interest - Gambler's ruin. Again.... you're welcome...

nope, you're wrong. the expected value is not half the value of 2 wins. It's the expected value of the most likely outcome, which is one win and one...

You're welcome.

They were fucked as soon as they changed their Brexit pledge to uphold the Referendum, that & Corbyn's public image they just didn't stand a chance...

It's not like Labour told the truth either.

Oh THAT graph! Well you're wrong..... very wrong... The point of the figure is that the expected value of gambling is very much not indicative of...

Well Lying Sack of Shit won. yay

Your last post is completely irrelevant to my point. Their line of expected values is incorrect. Here's the graph. It's using logarithmic y axis....

Oh dear go back & read the paper properly. Its a graph of u(x) = ln x & nowhere is it said that it was graphed on a 'log scale' because that would...

"Thats sentence doesnt even make sense." It's perfectly simple. They set up a false expectation to make their prediction seem surprising and...